A compelling SEC matchup tips off as the Florida Gators head to Neville Arena to take on the Auburn Tigers. Both teams are looking to solidify their NCAA Tournament resumes, making this a high-stakes clash in late-season conference play. Florida comes in with a powerful offense but has been inconsistent against the spread, while Auburn has proven to be reliable at home. With the help of Rithmm’s AI-powered model, we’ll break down the best angles for this matchup. Let’s dive into the Florida vs Auburn predictions, picks, and best bets to uncover where the betting value lies.
Florida enters the game with a 2-3 record against the spread (ATS), struggling to cover as favorites. The Gators haven’t yet covered in a road game this season. Auburn, on the other hand, has covered in three of its last five games and holds a 3-2 ATS home record. Auburn has been dependable at home, and their defensive efficiency gives them a real edge, especially against high-scoring teams like Florida.
Offensively, Florida is averaging just over 80 points per game, while Auburn isn’t far behind. This one projects to be a tightly contested game. Our breakdown of Florida vs Auburn picks shows that Auburn’s consistency at home might outweigh Florida’s firepower.
Florida is currently favored by 2.5 points on the road, but Rithmm’s model suggests that the edge could belong to Auburn. With a 54.9% win probability for the Tigers to cover the +2.5 spread, the model leans toward the underdog holding value—especially considering Auburn’s home-court success and Florida’s lack of ATS wins on the road.
These trends help inform our Florida vs Auburn predictions and show how Auburn’s performance at home contrasts with Florida’s struggles to cover as the favorite.
Rithmm’s NCAAM model projects a final score of:
Florida 80.2 – Auburn 78.3
Despite Florida being projected to win narrowly, the recommended bet is Auburn +2.5 based on the 54.9% model win probability and current -108 odds.
When it comes to Florida vs Auburn best bets, backing Auburn to cover the spread is the sharp play. The slight edge in the model and the Tigers’ strong home ATS record both support this position.
The model gives Florida a narrow edge in projected score, but the betting probability favors Auburn to cover. That suggests a closely contested game where Florida could sneak out a win but may not separate enough to beat the number. Auburn has a 54.9% chance to cover the +2.5 spread, implying that the game could come down to a final possession.
After reviewing Florida vs Auburn predictions, picks, and model insights, the value lies with the home team. Florida might get the straight-up win, but Auburn’s consistency at home and slight model edge make them the preferred play against the spread.
Best Bet: Auburn +2.5
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