There is a pattern in WNBA three-pointer props that has been quietly printing results all season long. When the Rithmm models predict a player to fall meaningfully short of the posted line on threes, the under has hit at a 68.2% clip across 22 qualifying bets this season, returning a ROI of +25.5%. That is not a fluke. That is a repeatable edge the models keep finding, and tonight it is pointing directly at DeWanna Bonner.
Bonner is listed at Under 1.5 three-pointers tonight against the Chicago Sky at -132. The Rithmm models project her at exactly 1.0 threes, a full half-make below the posted line. That gap between what the models see and what the sportsbook is pricing is where the value lives, and tonight it is sitting right in the middle of the most productive zone the models have identified all season.
The win probability on this pick comes in at 61%, and the edge registers at +9.0%. For context, that means the models believe the true odds of Bonner staying under are meaningfully better than what -132 implies. The sportsbook is pricing this at roughly 57% implied probability. The models disagree, and the historical data backs them up.
Bonner is a veteran forward who can get hot from deep on the right night, but the models are not seeing a high-volume three-point game here. Against a Chicago defense that has been serviceable at limiting perimeter activity, and with Bonner's own recent output tracked by the models, the projection of 1.0 threes suggests tonight is not that night.
Tip-off is at 10:00 PM. If you want to see exactly how Rithmm builds these projections before every game, download the app and check the full slate tonight.
