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Sparks vs Mercury: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models

July 7, 2024

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The Los Angeles Sparks host the Phoenix Mercury on Sunday night. Learn how AI sports betting is used to make my prediction!

Preview of my Sparks vs Mercury AI Prediction

This will be the third time LA has played Phoenix this year but first in LA. Mercury has dominated the Sparks winning both matchups by an average of 18 points. Will the dominance continue in Hollywood or will the Sparks get their revenge? This is included in my Sparks vs Mercury AI prediction.

Los Angeles Sparks Preview

The Sparks are coming off an OT thriller against the defending champions Aces. LA came out victorious 98-93 on Friday night.

Dearica Hamby led LA with 28 points and 14 rebounds. The 3x3 Olympian is having a stellar year putting up just under 19 points and 10 rebounds a game.

The victory against Vegas snapped an eight-game losing streak for the Sparks. LA will be looking to build momentum off their second victory this year against the Aces.

This plays a key role in my Sparks vs Mercury AI prediction.

Phoenix Mercury Preview

Phoenix has had a busy week, this will be their fourth game in seven days. Last time out on July 3rd, Mercury won an exciting match against the Wings 104-96. Kahleah Copper paced Phoenix with 32 points, making that her sixth game scoring 30 or more points on the season.  

Phoenix is an extremely talented offensive-minded team led by two superstar veterans. But those veterans both may not suit up on Sunday.

It was announced Saturday evening that Diana Taurasi, a 20-year veteran,  will not suit up in LA due to injury. Taurasi, the WNBA's all-time leading scorer, is averaging 16 points a game.  DT has averaged 25 points a game this year against LA.

Brittany Griner playing in her 11th season has been listed as a game-time decision for personal reasons. BG’s wife is expecting their first child but I think she will suit up. BG missed the first matchup with the Sparks but poured in 18 points and pulled down 11 rebounds in the second matchup.

These injuries have an impact on my AI betting prediction.

Let's break down my AI WNBA prediction for the Mercury vs Sparks matchup on Sunday.

How I Use Rithmm Models for Sparks vs Mercury AI Prediction

I utilize Rithmm AI models as a tool in my handicap. My process starts with looking at the head-to-head matchup.  

Then I look at trends and I discovered the following:

  • PHX 6-4 straight-up L10
  • PHX 7-3 ATS L10
  • PHX 4-6 to the over L10
  • PHX had a four-game under streak snapped last time out
  • PHX is scoring 82 points a game L5
  • PHX is allowing 83 points a game L5
  • LA 2-8 straight-up L10
  • LA 5-5 to the over L10
  • LA is scoring 84 points a game L5
  • LA is allowing 91 points a game L5
  • Both games this year between LA and PHX have gone under

Let's look at the board, currently, Phoenix is favored by 6.5 points. That seems reasonable but with DT out and possibly BG I don’t want to chance it with a play on the spread.

Let's look at the total, a total of  170.5 is available. This seems high for two teams that have had their previous two matchups, this year, go under the total. Plus a closer look at their recent form. Last time out LA snapped an under streak of two games and that was only because the game went to OT.

Phoenix, on the other hand, had an under streak of four games snapped last time out. For some reason when Dallas and Phoenix play those teams go over.

With the trends, stats, and injury news I’m leaning towards the under.

Now let's look at my custom Rithmm AI models I used for my Mercury vs Sparks AI sports prediction.

Using Rithmm Models to Solidify My Prediction for Mercury vs Sparks AI Prediction

Below you will see the models that I used to guide my Mercury vs Sparks AI betting prediction.

Mercury vs Sparks - Best Total Bet

Let's break down this graphic. This model is my customized model that has been on fire for total plays with a record of 14-5-1. The model is predicting a game score of 170.7 with a 61.3 percent probability of that happening.

That 170.7 prediction does not leave much room for the total of 170.5 but due to DT’s injury news being so fresh the model has not had a chance to update with DT out.

Rithmm models take into account missing and injured players. Check out the breakdown of how Rithmm models produce their AI sports prediction.

Without DT’s 25 points a game against the Sparks, I’m confident this game is going under.

My Sparks vs Mercury AI Prediction

Let's finish this up! I’m going with under 170.5 points. My model points that way and I agree! Enjoy your Sunday!  

Good luck and remember always gamble responsibly.

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