The Thunder are a dominant force, led by MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, while the Hawks are still developing their young core. But can the Hawks cover the spread at home against one of the NBA’s best teams? Let’s break it down using AI-powered insights from Rithmm to find the smartest Thunder vs Hawks predictions, picks, and best bets.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the NBA’s premier teams this season. Despite their young core, they play with chemistry and discipline beyond their years. Their leader, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, is having an MVP-caliber season, averaging:
Alongside him is Jalen Williams, who has emerged as a reliable secondary scorer with 21.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG, and 5.1 APG.
As a team, the Thunder average 118.6 points per game, ranking 4th in the NBA, while shooting 47.6% from the field (8th overall). Their defense has been elite, posting the NBA’s top Defensive Rating at 106.3.
However, in their last five games, they’ve struggled against the spread (ATS), going 1-4. Their road ATS record has also dipped to 1-3 in their last four road games.
The Atlanta Hawks have been an inconsistent team, but they’ve shown flashes of competitiveness. They are led by Trae Young, who continues to be an elite playmaker, averaging:
The Hawks have also seen No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher step up, contributing 11.4 PPG, 3.5 RPG, and 1.3 APG. On the defensive side, Dyson Daniels has been a standout, helping Atlanta maintain a 114.8 Defensive Rating.
While their 112.3 Offensive Rating ranks in the bottom 10, they are still a capable shooting team, hitting 34.9% from three and 46.3% from the field.
Recent trends show Atlanta is 2-3 ATS in their last five games, including 1-2 ATS at home.
When looking at my Thunder vs Hawks best bet, you have to think about this; given the Thunder’s struggles ATS on the road and the Hawks' ability to stay competitive at home, covering the spread could be within reach for Atlanta.
Recent ATS Performance
Oklahoma City Thunder ATS Record
Atlanta Hawks ATS Record
Key Betting Trends
With my initial research complete, it’s time to see if the AI-powered Rithmm models back up my Thunder vs Hawks prediction.
Customized Betting Models:
1. Well-Rounded Model
2. Three and D Model
3. Run and Gun Model
What does this mean?
While none of the models show a massive edge, two of them lean slightly towards the Hawks covering the spread in my Thunder vs Hawks pick.
With two of three AI models showing a slight edge towards Atlanta covering, I am inclined to lean toward the Hawks +12.5.
Recommended Bet: Hawks +12.5 (-111)
While the Thunder remain favorites, their recent ATS struggles on the road and Hawks' ability to keep games competitive at home make this a solid play in my Thunder vs Hawks prediction.
Looking for more AI-powered predictions? Check out:
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