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Mercury vs Wings: AI Predictions and WNBA Bet Picks

June 9, 2024

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Breaking down my Mercury vs Wings AI Predictions

Sunday is the second meeting between Wings and Mercury. Wings took the first matchup 107-92 behind 40 points from Arike Ogunbowale. Both teams have been dealing with injuries leading to slow starts with the Mercury (5-6) and the Wings (3-6). Mercury recently welcomed Brittney Griner back. Griner scored 11 points in her season debut against the Lynx. Having Griner back should improve an explosive offense that scores just under 79 points a game.

Wings even with their injuries have been just as efficient offensively. They are averaging 81 points a game, which ranks fifth in the W. The problem for both teams has been on the defensive side of the ball. The Mercury have given up an average of 80 points in their last four games and 85 points in their last three road games. The Wings have given up 84 points per game and 95 in their only home game.  

Let's break down my Rithmm WNBA pick for Sunday.

Mercury at Wings June 9, 2024 4 P.M EST

The way I utilize Rithmm is as a tool for my handicap. First, I look at the numbers as stated above. Both these teams are struggling defensively and combined early this year for 199 points in regulation. Worried about how Grinner may affect the game and the Mercury not being a great road team, I don’t want to touch the spread. Instead, I’m thinking of a play on the total.

During my research, I discovered the following trends:

  • Over is 6-2-1 in Mercury last nine vs a team with a straight-up losing record.
  • Over is 5-2 in Mercury last seven games following an ATS win.
  • Over is 4-1 on the Wings last five Sunday games.
  • Over is 4-1 in Wings last five Sunday games.
  • Over is 4-1 in Wings last 5 vs. Western Conference.
  • Over is 19-7-1 in Wings last 27 overall.
  • Over is 7-3-1 in Wings last 11 games following a ATS loss.
  • Over is 9-4-1 in Wings last 14 games following a straight-up loss.

With all the above trends I’m already leaning to the over 164.5 so let's check out my models to see if they back up my lean.

Using Rithmm Models to solidify my Mercury vs Wings AI Prediction

Below you will see two Rithmm AI models, total score probability and money line:

Rithmm AI Model, Mercury @ Wings, Total Score Model, Sports Gambling, WNBA betting

This model predicts the total score to be 176 with a win probability rate of 62.5% That is 11.5 points of value!

And because I always like to double-check the math, I also checked out the money line model to see those numbers.

Rithmm AI Model, Mercury @ Wings, Money Line, Sports Gambling, WNBA betting

The math checks out! 176 total points plus if you want a little extra fun you can take the Wings ML (-150).

Let's wrap this up and have a Sunday! I’m going with the over 164.5. The trends point that way and the Rithmm models agree. And remember always gamble responsibly.

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