Louisiana vs Texas State: AI Predictions - College Football

We're moving into Texas territory today as we see the Louisiana Ragin Cajuns come into San Marcos, TX to take on the Texas State Bobcats in a Sunbelt Conference showdown.

Let's see how I used the Rithmm App to create custom sports betting models to get my AI prediction for the Louisiana vs Texas State.

Preview of Louisiana vs Texas State AI Prediction

• Date: Thursday October 29th
• Time: 7:30 PM ET
• Location: Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos, TX
• Surface: FieldTurf
• How to Watch: ESPN2

Louisiana Preview

The Ragin Cajuns come into tonight's game with a 6 - 1 record (3 - 0 conference) and are riding a four game winning streak as they lead the West division of the Sunbelt Conference.

Louisiana has won the last 10 meetings between these two teams and will look to continue that trend on the arm of Ben Woodridge who is 142 for 204 with 1785 yards passing this season with 15 touchdowns and only four interceptions and nine sacks. He's also scored five touchdowns on 47 carries and 124 yards rushing.

Woodridge is coming off of a 27 of 36 performance last week where he threw for 373 yards and three touchdowns against Coastal Carolina. He's been doling the ball around to his favorite receivers, tight end Terrance Carter who has 465 receiving yards for the season on 29 catches with four touchdowns and wide out Lance LeGendre who has 20 catches for 381 yards and four touchdowns.

The Ragin Cajuns have scored 34 or more points in 3 of their last four road games this season and have held opponents to 24 or fewer in their last three games.

Louisiana is not ranked in the AP Top 25, though they did get three votes, and are ranked 75th in the ESPN College Football Power Index for 2024.

Texas State Preview

The Bobcats enter tonight's game with a 4 -3 overall record and are 2 - 1 in the Sunbelt Conference this season. Texas St lost last week to Old Dominion 24 - 14 and are 2 - 3 over their last five games.

Quarterback Jordan McCloud has thrown for 1891 yards on 159 of 232 passing on the year with 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions and has only been sacked seven times. McCloud was 17 of 34 for 173 yards and one touchdown with two interceptions and two sacks last week against Old Dominion.

He's also their second leading rusher on the Bobcats with 217 yards on 41 carries with five touchdowns. Their leading rusher is Ismail Mahdi who has 646 yards rushing on 122 carries and two touchdowns on the season. Last week against Old Dominion, Mahdi averaged 5.6 yards per carry on 25 carries that went for 139 yards.

Texas State has allowed 24 or more points in three of their last five games.

Texas State is not ranked in the AP Top 25, though they did get three votes, and are ranked 66th in the ESPN College Football Power Index for 2024.

How I use Models for Louisiana vs Texas State AI Prediction

Louisiana is playing solid ball right now while Texas State has shown cracks more often than not. With a spread that opened with Texas State laying -4, this line has barely moved even with the heavy bet split towards Louisville covering. I do expect a high scoring game and for those interested, that total is currently at 58.5 with a 77% bet split to the over.

My Rithmm app is solid to Louisiana covering this spread so I'll be looking to take Louisiana and the +4 as they are playing considerably better than Texas St right now and have basically owned the Bobcats over the last 10 years. I'm actually surprised that the books are holding so strongly onto State not only winning but covering.

Some other things to consider:

• Louisiana is 6 - 1 straight up in their last 7 games
• Louisiana is 10 - 1 against the spread in their last 11 games against Texas State
• Louisiana is 5 - 0 against the spread in their last 5 games
• Louisiana is 4 - 1 against the spread in their last 5 road games
• Texas St is 2 - 5 against the spread in their last seven games played in October
• Texas St is 0 - 5 in their last 5 games at home against Louisiana

I'm leaning towards Louisiana winning outright, but with a 59.7% win probability, I do believe they will cover the spread so I'm on Louisiana +4.

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