Fernando Mendoza Under 12.5 Rushing Yards Prediction
Fernando Mendoza’s first NFL start comes against the defending Super Bowl champions. The No. 1 overall pick takes over for the Las Vegas Raiders after the team traded Kirk Cousins to Minnesota. Las Vegas hosts the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, November 15, at 4:05 PM ET.
The pick is Fernando Mendoza under 12.5 rushing yards at -114. Rithmm projects 10.1 rushing yards, with a 60% win chance and +14.7% Edge at the listed price.
Mendoza has played one regular-season drive so far. He completed six of eight passes for 48 yards and ran once for three yards in a fourth-quarter appearance against New England. One drive tells us little about how often he’ll run with a full game ahead of him.
The matchup adds another variable. Seattle entered the week ranked first in total defense, and the Raiders report that the Seahawks have generated a 27% quarterback pressure rate this season. Pressure could create scrambling opportunities, but how Las Vegas uses Mendoza in his first start remains to be seen. At Indiana in 2025, he ran 90 times for 276 yards and seven touchdowns.
For the under to win, Mendoza needs to finish with 12 rushing yards or fewer, subject to your sportsbook’s settlement rules.
The model’s win chance is an estimate, and past results don’t guarantee the outcome.
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