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John Deere Classic 2024: Course Preview & Rithmm Best Bets

July 3, 2024

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With only two weeks from the Open Championship, held at Royal Troon in Scotland, the race for the FedExCup is starting to heat up, just like 90% of the United Stats currently. It's an apt time for us to look at a course preview of TPC Deere Run, where the 2024 John Deere Classic takes place.

Most of the top tier is taking this week off, so there's plenty of room for borderline players to make a case for the playoffs that begin in August. This event has seen plenty of previously unknown players claim the spotlight so it's a great opportunity.

Let's dive into my 2024 John Deere Classic course preview and of course, the best bets according to my Rithmm model that we'll be following this week.

2024 John Deere Classic Course Preview

The host course for the John Deere Classic is aptly named, and TPC Deere Run is always a good track that goes underrated due to the unfortunate placement it gets on the PGA Tour's schedule most years that results in most top players skipping the event.

Located in Silvis, Illinois, TPC Deere Run is yet another course that rewards players that can get hot with the putter and maximize their approach shots, so we'll definitely be looking for players that excel with that skillset. The course itself is a Par 72 that's medium-length at 7,268 yards, so don't expect a ton of lengthy holes this week.

The course itself is a Midwestern staple: positional and treelined, with very thick Kentucky bluegrass rough and Bentgrass greens that are pretty fast.

One of the interesting quirks of this course as well is how penal the rough and surrounding fescue can be. At four inches long, the rough can be absolutely brutal here and compared to a 25% Birdie or Better % from the fairway, the rough is only 13%. Hit those fairways!

Above all else, players will want to focus on getting their approaches close on these large greens. The scores can get low at this event, with the winning scores in the last ten years ranging from -18 all the way up to -27.

The best comp courses for TPC Deere Run are shorter courses that have seen birdie-fests happen, so think of places like Sedgefield CC, TPC Craig Ranch, Detroit Golf Club, TPC Twin Cities, and TPC River Highlands as places that we'll be looking to emulate.

Rithmm Models used for 2024 John Deere Classic Course Preview

In every Course Preview, we’ll be diving into Rithmm’s proprietary model to help you build the best betting model for that week’s course! Rithmm has its own AI model that it generates based on thousands of sims, but you also might want to build your own model, so that’s what this section is for.

When we get into Rithmm’s modeling aspect, it has five customizable sliders that you can mess around with: Recent Performance, Par 5 Performance, Par 4 Performance, Par 3 Performance, and Course Fit. You can adjust these to your heart’s content, and make it reflect the way you see the important stats.

My model for the 2024 John Deere Classic is below:

So I built two models this week: the one above, and one that does NOT emphasize recent form coming in nearly as much and adds a lot of emphasis to Par 4 scoring, Par 5 scoring, and course fit. You can find that model in our Discord, which is free to join and something you should check out!

Diving into this model, right away the lack of importance for Par 3 scoring stands out. The four Par 3s at TPC Deere Run are longer, with three of the four sitting over 185 yards, and tougher to score on, so the chances that most players just aim for the middle of the green to get an easy par and move on are higher than most.

Course fit goes hand-in-hand with recent form and Par 5 scoring's importance here. The best players on this course, like said above, will be the ones able to essentially flag-hunt and get low scores consistently. Especially on the three reachable Par 5s, low scores will be paramount.

There is an element to this event's history that says at some times, recent form is not as important here. In general, I tend to always lean towards golfers that ARE in good form coming into an event, so this model does emphasize recent form.

Lastly, above all else, score well on the Par 4s. The average score on the Par 4s at this course over the last five years is 3.97, so they are EASY. If you can't score low on them, the field is going to outpace you.

Best Betting Picks for John Deere Classic 2024

It’s time to build our Rithmm betting card for this week. We’re going to go into each of Rithmm’s favorite picks for Top 20/10/5 based on my model, and whether I agree or disagree with it.

Top 20: Ben Griffin +250 (37.4% Rithmm Win Probability)

Griffin made plenty of sense pre-tournament at Detroit Golf Club last week, so it's not surprising a all that he ranks highly on our model's list for this event as well. He finished T31 at the Rocket Mortgage, but I think Deere Run is a perfect venue for him to potentially score his first win on the PGA Tour.

He has never played at Deere Run, but he ranks fourth in our model this week due to his strengths: approach game and putting.

I like this play because of the inherent weakness of this field. Griffin has played well on easier course this year, with strong finishes at Hamilton, PGA West, Corales and The Dunes.

Top 10: Chesson Hadley +900 (13.7%)

Hadley is definitely an out there name, but has played easy courses pretty well this season and has T10, T34, and T25 finishes across his handful of times playing this tournament.

A decent putter, Hadley is not the worst name you could put on your placement card. However, I'm a bit nervous that he has only gained strokes on approach in four of his last 13 events, that could lag him behind at Deere Run.

Top 5: Keith Mitchell +600 (17.9%)

A Rithmm favorite this week: Mitchell is my model's pick to win as well, but one thing at a time. The visor-laden southerner is a great fit for this tournament. A wizard at putting himself in great spots off of the tee, Mitchell often is in perfect position to take dead aim at flags.

Despite him only having one solid John Deere Classic finish, a T7 in his first appearance in 2018, Cashmere Keith should be relied on because his approach game is great.

Another thing to focus on here: this is the third-easiest course to gain strokes putting on, per Betsperts Golf, so don't worry too much about Mitchell's putting numbers (or lack thereof). He'll be able to fire closely enough to make it work.

Outright Winner Pick for John Deere Classic: Daniel Berger +6000 (2.2%)

Berger is hilarious to me, simply because he's a perfect poster child for bettors who ren't worrying about recent form coming into this event. Berger, who's only made 8/15 cuts this season, is coming off of losing strokes on approach in two of his last three events, sandwiched around solid performance across the board at the U.S. Open.

However, he's had a decent history here with multiple top 35 finishes and a top-five finish, albeit in 2017. Berger is a below-average putter that is accurate off of the tee, so that will be key for him this week.

AI Caddie Picks for Round 1

The AI Caddie is an awesome Rithmm tool that allows you to go hole by hole with any player you choose and it will show you a chart of how likely that player is versus the field to get any score on a hole.

Closing Remarks on 2024 John Deere Classic Course Preview

We are two weeks ago from the season's last major, so TPC Deere Run is a perfect venue to truly dive into the summer season of the PGA Tour. I hope that my best bets & course preview gives you all the insights and predictions needed to make informed wagers.

Ready to elevate your golf betting experience? Create a Rithmm account today and explore our AI-driven models for precise picks. Choose between our core or premium subscription to unlock advanced tools and strategies designed to enhance your betting success. Don't miss out—sign up now and take your game to the next level!

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