The 2026 FIFA World Cup brought with it one of the best opportunities for smart bettors that soccer has seen in years. More than 48 teams, group stage chaos, and sportsbooks setting lines on matches they hadn't seen in years. For most bettors, that meant noise. For Rithmm, it meant data.
Before Australia faced Türkiye in their group stage clash, the sportsbooks had Australia listed as a significant underdog. The moneyline sat at +420 on FanDuel, a number that told bettors the implied probability was roughly 19%. The public saw a risky bet. Rithmm's soccer models saw something different.
Rithmm's soccer models run a continuous comparison between their probability outputs and the lines the sportsbooks post. The result of that comparison is the DTM, or Difference to Market. A positive DTM means the models believe the probability of an outcome is higher than what the sportsbook line implies.
On Australia vs Türkiye, the models calculated a +22.9% DTM on Australia to win. That number is significant. A +22.9% DTM means the models believed Australia's true probability of winning was roughly 22.9 percentage points higher than what the posted odds reflected. The models put Australia's win probability at 25%, compared to the implied market probability closer to 19%. At +392 odds, that represented genuine value for bettors willing to look at the data.
The casual bettor sees a +420 moneyline and processes it as a long shot. That's the natural reaction. But the problem is that the odds alone don't tell you whether the probability is fairly priced. A team can be a legitimate underdog and still be undervalued if the line is set too far against them on the probability side.
That's the gap Rithmm exists to fill. The models don't just say which team wins more often. They compare their probability estimates to the market prices and surface picks where there's a meaningful difference. When the DTM is high and positive, that's where the value lives.
Bettors who tracked the Australia pick risked $100 and returned $392 when Australia won 2-0.
The 2026 World Cup runs through July, and every round brings new matchups the market will misprice. Group stage games between teams with limited recent head-to-head data, knockout round matches where one team is on a fatigue disadvantage, and elimination games where the public is chasing the bigger name all create the conditions where the models can spot DTM that the books haven't fully accounted for.
To find these picks on Rithmm, open the app and navigate to the soccer tab during any active World Cup match day. Each prediction shows the models' estimated win probability alongside the current market line, and the DTM is displayed directly on the card. When the DTM is positive and the pick carries a Recommended or Smart Signal tag, that's the models telling you the data sees something worth looking at.
The Australia result wasn't luck. It was the models doing exactly what they're built to do: finding where the market probability and the actual probability diverge, and surfacing it clearly so everyday bettors can act on it with confidence.
The 2026 World Cup is the biggest betting opportunity in soccer this decade. Don't approach it the same way you approached every other tournament. Rithmm's models are running on every group stage and knockout match. Start your 7-day free trial and see what the data is flagging before the next whistle blows.
