The 2026 World Cup Round of 16 is here, and tonight's game in Seattle might be the most important match in USMNT history. The United States faces Belgium at 7:00 PM, with a spot in the quarterfinals on the line. The oddsmakers have USA at +143, making them a slight underdog. But Rithmm's soccer models are telling a different story.
The models give the United States a 45% win probability in this matchup against Belgium, compared to 32% for Belgium and a 23% chance of a draw. When you translate Belgium's moneyline odds into implied probability, the sportsbooks are pricing USA's win chance at roughly 38.5%. That gap between 38.5% and 45% is the edge the models are detecting. A +6.5% edge on a moneyline bet is not something that shows up every day, and it is exactly the kind of discrepancy that makes this a Value Play.
The biggest story heading into tonight is the reinstatement of Folarin Balogun. FIFA reversed his red card suspension from the Bosnia and Herzegovina match, clearing him to start in Seattle. Balogun leads the team with three goals and has been central to every threatening run the USMNT has produced. His presence completely changes the ceiling on this offense. Without him, USA was looking at a more conservative approach. With him back, Mauricio Pochettino can run the same lineup that produced a 4-1 win over Paraguay and a clean 2-0 win over Bosnia.
Christian Pulisic has been a constant presence in USMNT attacks throughout the tournament but has yet to put one in the net. That number is going to change at some point, and the Round of 16 in front of a home crowd is exactly the stage where it tends to happen. Sergiño Dest and Antonee Robinson have created consistent width down both flanks, and the team has nine goals across four games without a single goal from several key contributors. That untapped potential is something the models factor in alongside the raw matchup data.
Belgium is not to be taken lightly. Thibaut Courtois remains one of the best goalkeepers in the world, Kevin De Bruyne controls the pace in midfield, Romelu Lukaku brings physical presence up front, and Jérémy Doku is a genuine game-changer on the wing. However, Belgium has not dominated possession at this World Cup, with Egypt holding 46% against them in the group stage. That suggests USA, which has been excellent defensively under Pochettino, has a real path to keeping this competitive and winning on quality chances rather than volume.
The Seattle crowd is worth mentioning separately. USA has played in front of massive home support throughout this tournament, and the environment tonight will be unlike anything the Belgium players have experienced. The models account for home advantage, and it is one of several factors contributing to the 45% win probability on a team listed as an underdog.
The full picture the models are painting is one of a USA team that is healthier, more dangerous, and better positioned than the +143 odds suggest. Rithmm's soccer models are flagging this as a Value Play tonight, and the numbers back it up.
If you want to see exactly how Rithmm's models break down tonight's match, including live probability shifts as game time approaches, download the app and pull up tonight's predictions before kickoff. The edge is there. The data is clear. USA ML +143 is worth a serious look tonight.
