Best Bets

Wake Forest vs. North Carolina (UNC): AI Prediction

January 22, 2024

Best Bets (3 of 3) for Monday, January 22st, 2024

Two storied NCAAM teams and in-state rivals clash on Monday night when the Demon Deacons travel to Chapel Hill to try and slow down the red hot Tar Heels. This ACC matchup is projected to be a high scoring affair led by Wake’s Hunter Sallis and UNC’s RJ Davis.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons Betting Preview

Wake Forest are currently sitting near the top of the standings in the ACC with a 5-2 record. They are coming off a high scoring game scoring 90 points in a 25 point win over Louisville 90-65.

Their offense is led by guard Hunter Sallis who puts up an average of 17.7 PPG. That number may seem low for a team’s leading scorer, but that is because there are multiple players capable of putting up big numbers. They have 5 players who average over 12 PPG this year, with 3 of them averaging over 15 PPG. Sharpshooter Damari Monsanto just returned from injury last game, and took off where he left off, going 4-6 from 3 point land. Monsanto is a great sharpshooter, averaging 40.5% from deep last year in 27 games played. 

North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview

One of the most recognizable college basketball teams in the history, North Carolina is ranked 4th in the nation and a perfect 7-0 in ACC play. They are riding in on a 8 game win streak into Monday night’s action.

RJ Davis spearheads the UNC offense with a monstrous 20.2 PPG. Their offense is not as balanced as Wake’s, but they still have 4 players averaging double digit PPG this year. Big man Armando Bacot is the Heel’s second best scorer, averaging just under 15 PPG. Following that, UNC relies on Harrison Ingram, averaging 12.4 PPG, and Cormac Ryan, 11.1 PPG, to help bolster the offensive side of the ball.

My Wake Forest vs. North Carolina Prediction

This rivalry game will be a slug-fest full of sharp shooters, leading to the total going over 155.5 points in this game (at the time of writing the line was o154.5 and it's since shifted to o155.5)

All of WF’s offensive firepower adds up to Wake averaging a total of 81.1 PPG, which gives them the ranking of 32nd in the country. That is top 8.8% in division 1 with 362 total teams playing college basketball. Their defense is not as impressive however, ranked just 110th in the country because of them allowing 69.8 PPG. Also, this number gets even worse in road games - spiking up to 78.9 points allowed.

While UNC relies on a core few players, this does not mean they cannot score. They are averaging 83.4 PPG as a team this year, good for 13th in the nation. This top 3.6 percentile team somehow scores even more at home, increasing by a massive 8% up to 90.6 PPG at home.  UNC’s defense is put on the back-burner compared to their offense as well. They allow an average of 69.3 opponent PPG, ranked 101st in the country.

Rithmm backs these findings as well. 

Wake Forest vs. UNC AI Prediction college basketball

I customized my AI Sports Betting Model with 5 major criteria. It gives the edge to the over in 3 of the five categories, including a huge advantage for us on the defense (or lack thereof) in this game.

Rithmm Estimates a win probability of over 78% including a staggering 49.7% edge over the 155.5 total line.

Closing on the Wake Forest vs. North Carolina (UNC) college basketball prediction

This line has already moved up from the 153 that it opened at. You do not want to miss out on the action before the line keeps moving up on the marquee matchup on the night.

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