USC vs Michigan: AI Predictions - College Football NCAAF

You don't make a lot of friends when you write about betting on college football games and, unless you're taking the total, you end up alienating and offending one group or the other. And today will be a perfect example of that as we have two top division teams playing for only their 10th time since 1948 as the 11th ranked USC Trojans come into The Big House to take on the #18 Michigan Wolverines.

USC has won 6 of those 10 games over the past 76 years, most recently in 2007 when they beat Michigan 32 - 18 in Pasadena, CA. This also marks the first time USC has traveled to Ann Arbor and it is the first meeting between these two teams in the new Big 10 realignment era.

See how I used the Rithmm App to create custom sports betting models to get my AI prediction USC Trojans vs Michigan Wolverines.

Preview of USC vs Michigan AI Prediction

Date: Saturday September 21st

Time: 3:30 PM ET

How to Watch: CBS or Paramount+

Location: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
Surface: FieldTurf

USC Trojans Preview

The Trojans (2 - 0) are coming off of a bye week and are landing in Ann Arbor riding a two game winning streak as they opened the season a 4 point dog to LSU, beating them on Labor Day and then marched all over Utah State 48 - 0 the following week.

Miller Moss has been a comforting presence on the Trojan offense in the post Caleb Williams era having thrown for 607 yards with 2 touchdowns and no picks. He's ranked 33rd in the nation with a 73.9 QBR and had an efficient last game against Utah St going 21 of 30 for 229 yards and one touchdown. Moss has been distributing the ball quite well and he'll be throwing to a bevy of wide outs including Zachariah Branch who has 8 catches on the season for 75 yards, Kyron Hudson with 6 catches for 99 yards, Ja'Kobi Lane with 5 receptions for 66 yards and a touchdown and Kyle Ford who has 80 yards on 4 receptions and is averaging 20 yards per catch as well as big Tight End Lake McKree who has 9 catches for 137 yards.

Woody Marks has led the Trojans with 171 yards on 29 carries with 3 TD's. Marks ran for 103 yards on 13 carries and one touchdown last week against USU with 3 catches out of the backfield for 39 yards and Quinten Joyner who has 14 carries for 96 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2024.

The USC defense has been a top-25 team this season, having only allowed 270 rushing yards, and are led by Linebacker Eric Gentry who holds down what has been a solid defense with 10 solo tackles and one sack along with Safety Anthony Beavers Jr who has 12 tackles and a forced fumble.

USC is currently ranked 11th in the AP Top 25 as well as 12th in the nation in the ESPN College Football Power Index for the 2024 season.

Michigan Wolverines Preview

The Wolverines (2 - 1) are coming off of a slim win against Arkansas St last week and will be catching the Trojans off of a bye week and rested.

Davis Warren will be replaced this week by Alex Orji. Warren was 11 of 14 with 122 yards and 3 interceptions last week against Arkansas State and has 6 interceptions already in a lackluster season. Orji took over late last week and threw for 15 yards and 2 touchdowns on 3 for 6 passing. He's also run 10 times for 58 yards this season. Head Coach Sherrone Moore said on Monday, "Would love to see him just take the reins and do what he's been doing". Orji will be throwing to Tight End Colston Loveland who leads the receiving corp with 187 yards on 19 catches with one touchdown.

Kalel Mullings has been the offense for Michigan so far this season going for 270 yards on 36 carries with two touchdowns along with Donovan Edwards with 150 yards on 36 carries and one touchdown.

Defensively the Wolverines are led by Linebackers Ernest Hausmann who has 14 tackles and one sack, Jaishawn Barham who also has 14 tackles and defensive end Josaiah Steward with 10 tackles and two sacks.

Michigan is ranked 18th in the AP Top-25 and finds themselves 21st in the ESPN College Football Power Index for the 2024 season.

How I use Models for Trojans vs Wolverines AI Prediction

Back to my comments about upsetting the fans, this is the part where I tell you that this is going to be a tough game. It's being played in the Big House, one of the loudest and most difficult stadiums to play and a place where Michigan seldom loses. Yet, this game opened at +2 for Michigan last week (DK) and has climbed steadily to the +6 it's at now on most books.

I haven't been torn too much on this matchup. I have liked USC from the moment they beat LSU and Michigan lost to Texas. Michigan is on their 4th home game and there's no arguing that they have struggled in each of their games. Will the change to Orji make that much of a difference? I believe he will bring a different element to this game, specifically his ability to run, which I expect him to do a lot. If USC can contain him, they will win comfortably as I don't believe this Michigan is the same Michigan it was under Harbaugh.

I've been chasing this game on my Rithmm all week and at times the models came back with mixed results. But this morning, as we're getting closer and closer to kick off, things began to come together in the way I was expecting. The interesting thing is that even with the change at quarterback, the line didn't adjust much, showing that even the books feel this USC team is something to be reckoned with.

As you can see, my Rithmm AI Custom Betting Model above shows that in spite of The Big House, the loud crowd, the home field advantage, the change in quarterback, USC is still favored by -5.5. And that line is being hammered with a 93% bet split to USC as well. Also, our Rithmm community is backing this play at a 68.5% clip.

Michigan had a season to remember last year and Wolverine fans can embrace that fact - they simply ruled college football. But this is a new team, new coach and now a new quarterback. I'm going to follow the models on this one and take USC -5.5.

And really, no matter which way this game ends, this is going to be a great game. All that's missing now is Keith Jackson.

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