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Storm vs Wings: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models

July 1, 2024

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The Dallas Wings go head-to-head with the Seattle Storm in Seattle at 10:00 PM EST. The match up pits two teams against each other that have had completely different seasons and are headed in complete opposite direction. The Storm have continued their turnaround from their last season disappointment and are currently second in the Western Conference.

While, the Wings haven’t been able to put it all together and sit in last place in the conference and much a half game better than the last place team in the entire WNBA. Let’s take a deep dive in on the Wings vs Storm AI Predictions for what the models say are the best bets of this Monday night battle.

Preview of my Storm vs. Wings AI Prediction

The Seattle Storm (12-6) come into this match up on a roll having won their last three and 11 of their last 14 games. The same can’t be said about their opponent, the Dallas Wings (4-14) who have lost 12 of their last 13 games and can’t find any rhythm.  

This is the third matchup of the season between these teams with the Storm winning the first two games by an average margin of 14.5. They played just two days ago with the Storm running the Wings off the court, winning 97-76. This data is essential in my Storm vs Wings AI prediction.

Seattle Storm Preview

The Storm are led by their four headed monster of stars with Jewell Loyd, Nneka Ogwumike, Ezi Magbegor, and Skylar Diggens-Smith. This core has been and to turn the ship around and is playing some of the best basketball in the league.

Loyd leads the team with 19.9 ppg followed by Ogwumike with 17.4 ppg. With that duo leading the way in points, Diggens-Smith leads the team with 6.2 assists per game and Magbegor tops the team in rebounds with 8.9 per game  

The Storm have been a defensive minded team all season and it shows in their league statistical standings  

They are third in the league in defensive rating with a 96.5 rating, and leading the league in steals, blocks, and total rebounds.

On the offensive side, they run in the middle of the pack. They are fifth in the league in offensive rating, fourth in total points per game, and seventh in field goal percentage and second to last in three-point percentage  

They are 12-6 on the season and they are 12-6 against the spread. They have gone over eight times and under 10 times on the season.

Dallas Wings Preview

The Wings season has not gone how they would have liked so far in 2024. Coming into this matchup with the lowest win total in the WNBA, there are not a ton of positives to highlight at the moment. The Wings are led by sensational scorer Arike Ogunbowale with 23.9 points per game and then have another five players averaging above 10 points per game.

Despite the, seemingly, plethora of scoring, the Wings rank on the bottom half of offensive rating, are 6th in field goal percentage, 9th in three-point percentage, 12th in turnovers, and 7th in total points per game.

They also are second worst in defensive rating and second slowest PACE in the league. This all adds up to just four wins on the season and a lot left to be desired. While the pieces are there to building something for the Wings, the 2024 season hasn't panned out as they would like.

The Wings are 7-11 against the spread and have gone over 11 times compared to 6 unders and 1 tie. This insight plays a key role in my Storm vs Wings AI prediction.

How I Use Rithmm Models for Storm vs Wings AI Prediction

This is an interesting game to dissect especially because these two teams just played a mere two days ago. A lot could be told when looking at the numbers from that last game. The two teams hit the over with a total of 173 points, but they needed to go a combined 64 of 135 (48%) from the field and the Storm to score 97 points to reach 173. With that high total just two days ago, the O/U is even higher, sitting at 169 for tonight's game.

With the stellar defense of the Storm, the slow PACE of these teams, and the tendency to turn the ball over, I am leaning towards the under for these teams.

With my initial thoughts and research done, let’s turn to the Rithmm app and see if the models that have been created confirm my theories for my WNBA AI prediction.

Let's take a look at the Rithmm AI custom betting models that I personally created with the Rithmm app.  

The first model, “Rithmm AI”, which looks at all categories equally but leaving tempo out, have the Wings vs Storm AI prediction as an over/under of 165.1. This is a full four points less than the given spread. The Rithmm app categories this as a recommended play looking at this model.

The “All Offensive” model that I had customized that puts a ton of weight on all offensive categories, have the Wings vs Storm AI prediction as an over/under of 165.8. This is also almost a four point swing from the given spread and the Rithmm app, also, has this as a recommended play using my "All Offensive" model.

Lastly, the “Defensive/Tempo” model that I customized featuring tempo, three pointers , and defense, have the Wings vs Storm AI prediction as an over/under of 163.6. As you may imagine being that this is a defensive minded model, this is the most aggressive O/U recommendation being almost 6 points more favorable than the given spread. This is, of course, recommended as well by the Rithmm app.

My Wings vs Storm AI Prediction

With my own research and with all three of the models showcasing a significant edge on the under I am sticking with my initial inclination. I’m taking the UNDER at 169 of the Wings vs Storm match up.

Conclusions on My Storm vs Wings AI Predictions

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