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Storm vs Aces: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models

July 10, 2024

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The Las Vegas Aces take on the Seattle Storm in Seattle in the afternoon, day game at 3:00 PM. The Aces and Storm are two of the preeminent teams this season in the WNBA and both have high expectations with visions of hoisting the championship trophy.  

Let’s take a look at the LV vs SEA AI Predictions for what the models say are the best bets of this Wednesday afternoon showcase.

Preview of my Storm vs Aces AI Prediction

The Seattle Storm (14-7) enter this match up having won five out of their last six games and seven of their last ten. Similarly, the reigning champion, Las Vegas Aces (13-7) have won seven of their last eight games coming into this showdown.

This is the third match up of the season between these teams with the Storm winning the first game 78-65 and the Aces taking the second game 94-83.

Seattle Storm Preview

The Storm are led by four stars who account for 76.9 percent of their points per game. With Jewell Loyd leading the way with 19.9 points per game, followed by Nneka Ogwumike with 17.5 ppg and then Skylar Diggens-Smith at 13.9 ppg and Ezi Magbegor at 13.4 ppg. They are a team that compliments each other in every aspect of the game.  

In their last six games where they’ve won five, they have won by an average margin of victory of 16.2. They are rounding into form and are prepared for a deep run.

The team wide statistics tell a similar story when ranked against the league. They are second in the league in Pace (79.7), fourth in offensive ratings (104.2), third in defensive rating (96.7), first in steals and first in blocks.

They are 14-7 on the season and they are 14-7 against the spread. When they win, they win by a wide margin and likewise when they lose. They have gone over 9 times and under 12 times to date.

When it comes to my Las Vegas vs Seattle AI prediction, if they win, they win convincingly and if they lose, the game gets away from them.  

Las Vegas Aces Preview

The Aces come into this matchup playing their best basketball of the season. They have won seven of their last eight games and the average margin of victory in those seven games is 14.9 points.

They are led by MVP candidate and likely front runner A’ja Wilson who is leading the WNBA in points per game with 27.0 and in Win Share with 5.6. Kelsey Plum (19.2 ppg) and Jackie Young (18.7 ppg) round out their three headed monster.

The Aces have found their footing since starting slow and have turned into an offensive juggernaut. They lead the league in team points per game at 89.4, field goal percentage (44.5 percent), field goals attempted, and are third in three-point percentage (35.4 percent).

They like to run the court even more than the Storm, topping the second place Storm, in Pace with an 80.7 rate. They have the second best offensive rating just behind the Liberty but clearly above and separated from the rest of the league.

They have been on a roll and look like they aren’t stopping anytime soon.

On the season, the Aces are just 9-11 ATS despite their 13-7 actual record. They have won six of their last eight against the spread. They have gone over 12 times and hit the under 8 so far in 2024.

How I Use Rithmm Models for Storm vs Aces AI Prediction

My immediate thoughts are that this game feature two of the best teams and will be a tight game throughout. I also recognize the dominant brand of basketball that the Aces have been showing over the last eight games.

The spread on this game is Aces -4.5 with an O/U of 173.5.

I first jump to the spread because of the high point total. Though these are two offensive machines, the customizable models on the Rithmm app don’t give me confidence with the point total.

I then go to the spread and think it may be somewhere to find value with the Aces giving the points.

With my initial thoughts and research done, let’s turn to the Rithmm app and see if the models that have been created confirm my theories for my WNBA AI prediction.

Let's take a look at the Rithmm AI custom betting models that I personally created with the Rithmm app.  

The first model, “Rithmm AI”, which takes into account all categories equally with the exception of tempo, have the Aces vs Storm AI prediction as Aces -7.9. This is a 3.4 point edge to the Aces and is a Rithmm app recommended bet.

Aces vs Storm - Rithmm AI

The “All Offensive” model that I customized that puts most weight on all offensive categories, have the Aces vs Storm AI prediction as Aces -3.9 (or Storm +3.9). The offensive categories are doing the heavy lifting here as both teams like to run and gun and the Storm being home. This is against my initial inclination and is actually a Rithmm recommended bet but on the Storm.

Aces vs Storm - All Offensive

Lastly, the “Defensive/Tempo” model that I customized featuring tempo, three pointers , and defense, have the Aces vs Storm AI prediction as Aces -7.6. Another significant edge towards the Aces and is also a Rithmm app recommended bet.

Aces vs Storm - Defensive/Tempo

My Storm vs Aces AI Prediction

With my own research and with two of three of the models showcasing a significant edge on the Aces, I am sticking with my first thought. Leaning on the recent play of the Aces and with Wilson playing as well as she is, I’m taking the ACES -4.5 of the Aces vs Storm match up.

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