Sparks vs Sun: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models
Table of Contents
The Connecticut Sun travel to Los Angeles to take on the Los Angeles Spark at 9:00PM EST in this Sunday night special. The match up features two teams that have had quite different seasons so far. The Sun who have been one of the premier teams in the WNBA all season have been on cruise control and the Sparks, who lost their rookie sensation, Cameron Brink, early in the season and haven’t been able to find much success all year. Each of these teams are in different spots looking ahead where one is gearing up for a playoff run and the other prepping for an early offseason and draft prep. Let’s take a look at the Sun vs Sparks AI Predictions for what the models say are the best bets of this Sunday night matchup.
Read about how I used Rithmm to build a custom sports betting model to arrive at my Sparks vs Suns AI prediction.
Preview of Sparks vs Sun AI Prediction
The Connecticut Sun (24-10) enter this matchup on a bit of a slide. They have lost their last two game and have been 6-4 in their last 10. Still, they sit firmly in the third spot in the league and have their eyes set on a deep playoff run. The Los Angeles Spark (7-27) haven’t had the season they expected or wanted and haven’t been able to find any footing all year. They have lost their last three in a row and nine of their last 10 games. While the Sun are looking at the playoffs, the Sparks are looking at securing a top pick of the draft to hopefully add to their young core.
This is the third matchup of the season between these two teams. The Sun won both of the previous games, one by nine point and the other by eight.
Los Angeles Sparks Preview
The Los Angeles Sparks, despite their poor record, have a lot to be excited about in the future. They are led by Dearica Hamby with 17.6 points per game and 9.5 rebounds and Rickey Jackson with 12.5 ppg.
As a team, they shoot 42.5 percent from the field which is second worst in the league on 66.3 shots per game which is also second worst in the league. They tend to not take care of the ball with 14.7 turnovers a game, the third most in the league. Overall, they rank in the bottom three of team points per game with 79.0. It hasn’t been the season to remember for the Sparks.
Looking at the advanced metrics doesn’t paint much of a better picture. They are the fourth fastest team in PACE, second worst in offensive rating, and third worst in defensive rating.
They are 7-27 on the season but they are 16-17-1 against the spread. They have also hit the over 16 times in their 34 games.
This plays a key role in my Sparks vs Sun AI Prediction.
Connecticut Sun Preview
The Sun are not the offensive powerhouse that we’ve seen sweep the WNBA in recent years. They are not led by any one offensive superstar but have six players all averaging double-digit points. Leading the pack on scoring is 15-year veteran All-Star DeWanna Bonner with 15.9 points per game and three-point shooter, Mariana Mabrey with 14.1 points per game.
The Sun are an interesting team to investigate as offensively they are not in the same tier as other top teams. They average the lowest number of shots in the league with 65.6 per game and hit those shots at 43.9 percent which is 6th in the league. They are the 4th worst rebounding team, the 3rd worst assist team, and the 5th worst in scoring per game with 79.9 points per game.
On an advanced metric basis, they have the slowest PACE in the league, but they are the second-best defensive team according to Defensive Rating.
They are 24-10 on the season but they are 14-20 against the spread. They have also hit the over 15 times in their 34 games.
Let's break down my Rithmm WNBA pick for Tuesday's Sparks vs Sun AI Prediction.
How I Use Rithmm Models for my Sparks vs Sun AI Prediction
This is an atypical game to look at when trying to take a betting side. The spread and over/under on this game is Sun -9.5 and 159.5. At first thought, the fact that the Sun are the vastly superior team make you lean in their direction. Especially when you take into account that the playoffs are approaching, and they will need to flip the switch soon but diving in the numbers makes me lean towards the Sparks with the points.
With that said, I am looking at the spread for value. With the way the Sun are playing, 9.5 points seems like a high number.
With my initial thoughts and research done, let’s turn to the Rithmm app and see if the models that have been created confirm my theories for my WNBA AI prediction.
Let's take a look at the Rithmm AI custom betting models that I personally created with the Rithmm app.
The first model, “Rithmm AI”, which is a model that equally weighs all categories with the exception of Tempo, have the Sun vs Sparks AI prediction total as Sparks +10.9. This isn’t showing an edge over the given line.
The “All Offensive” model that I had customized that puts heavy emphasis on all offensive categories, have the Sun vs Sparks AI prediction as Sparks +11.6. This also doesn’t show much of an edge on the given spread.
Lastly, the “Defensive/Tempo” model that I customized featuring tempo, three pointers , and defense, have the Sun vs Sparks AI prediction as Sparks +10.2. Another model not showing a big edge for my initial inclination.
My Sparks vs Sun prediction
With my own research and with the models indicating the given spread is about where it should be, the recent trends of these teams keep me focused on my first thoughts. I’m taking the Sparks +9.5 in the Sun vs Sparks match up.
Make your own picks with your free Rithmm trial
If you’re following along and want to try it for yourself, click here to get started with a 7-day free trial.
