The Pittsburgh Pirates take on the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on May 16 at 6:45 PM ET. Let’s take a look at my Pirates vs Phillies prediction for today, including Pirates vs Phillies picks and Pirates vs Phillies best bets.

Preview of Pirates vs Phillies Prediction

Heading into tonight’s Pirates vs Phillies prediction, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions. The Pirates have momentum on their side with a recent stretch of solid performances against the spread, while the Phillies will be looking to bounce back after a shaky home ATS record. The game is set to take place at Citizens Bank Park and will be available to watch via local broadcasters or streaming platforms.

Injury Report for Pirates vs Phillies

Injuries are a major factor in today’s Pirates vs Phillies picks.

Pirates Injury Report:

• Enmanuel Valdez, Timothy Mayza (D60 – Shoulder)
• Dauri Moreta, Jared Jones, Justin Lawrence, Johan Oviedo (D60 – Elbow)
• Nicholas Gonzales (D10 – Ankle)
• Endy Rodríguez (D10 – Finger)
• Oneil Cruz (Day-to-Day – Back)

Phillies Injury Report:

• Ryan Burr (D60 – Shoulder)
• José Ruiz (D15 – Neck)

Who is Favored to Win Pirates vs Phillies?

According to my Rithmm model, the Phillies are slightly favored with a projected score of 5.0 to 4.0 over the Pirates. However, when it comes to covering the run line, the Pirates vs Phillies prediction gets interesting—especially considering the Pirates' ATS momentum.

Pirates vs Phillies History

The Pirates vs Phillies trends paint a clear picture of recent form:

• Pirates are 5-0 ATS overall
• Pirates are 3-0 ATS away
• Pirates are 5-0 ATS as underdogs
• Phillies are 2-3 ATS overall
• Phillies are 0-3 ATS at home

These Pirates vs Phillies trends support a strong case for Pittsburgh to cover once again.

How Many Times Has Pittsburgh Beat Philadelphia?

While this article focuses on recent trends and today’s prediction, historically these two franchises have played dozens of times. However, today’s Pirates vs Phillies pick is more influenced by current form and injuries than lifetime records.

Model Used for My Pirates vs Phillies Best Bet Prediction

I used my Pre-Built MLB Model in Rithmm, which considers a range of performance data, injury reports, line value, and historical team performance. This model has a solid track record in predicting underdog covers.

What Chance Does Pittsburgh Have of Beating Philadelphia?

Based on the model’s data, the Pirates have a 55.5% probability to cover the +1.5 run line, despite being underdogs. This makes the Pirates vs Phillies best bet even more appealing if you’re playing the run line.

Best Odds for Pirates vs Phillies

The Pirates vs Phillies best odds for +1.5 on the run line are:

• WilliamHillNewJersey: +1.5 (-110)
• MGM: +1.5 (-110)
• Bet365NewJersey: +1.5 (-110)

Make sure to line shop for the best value on your Pirates vs Phillies picks.

My Pick for Pirates vs Phillies

My Pirates vs Phillies prediction is to take Pirates +1.5 (-111). The model recommends this run line pick based on recent Pirates vs Phillies trends and a strong edge shown in Pittsburgh’s recent ATS form.

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Explore More Pirates vs Phillies Predictions

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