The New York Mets head to Fenway Park for a showdown with the Boston Red Sox on May 19 at 6:45 PM ET. Let’s take a look at my Mets vs Red Sox prediction for today, highlighting model insights, betting odds, and my top picks.

Preview of Mets vs Red Sox Prediction

Both teams enter this Mets vs Red Sox pick struggling to cover spreads. The Mets are just 1-4 ATS over their last five, while the Red Sox aren't far ahead at 2-3. Still, this interleague clash offers betting value with a strong model-backed edge.

First pitch is scheduled for 6:45 PM ET at Fenway Park.

Injury Report for Mets vs Red Sox

This Mets vs Red Sox prediction must account for extensive injury reports on both sides, impacting depth and matchups:

• Mets Injuries: Several key arms including Christian Scott, Nathan Lavender, and Alex Minter are on the 60-day IL with elbow or lat injuries. Jesse Winker and Jose Siri are also sidelined.

• Red Sox Injuries: The Sox are also banged up, with Triston Casas, Masataka Yoshida, and Walker Buehler out. Elbow injuries are impacting their bullpen depth.

Who is Favored to Win Mets vs Red Sox?

For this Mets vs Red Sox prediction, sportsbooks have the Red Sox as 1.5-run underdogs, with a 61.0% implied win probability when taking the run line at -135. Despite being the underdog, the recommendation suggests Boston is undervalued in the market.

Mets vs Red Sox History

Let’s examine recent Mets vs Red Sox trends:

• Mets ATS: 1-4 overall, 1-2 away, 0-2 as favorite.
• Red Sox ATS: 2-3 overall, 1-2 at home, 1-2 as underdog.

Both teams are trending poorly ATS, but Boston’s edge as a home dog plays into this Mets vs Red Sox prediction.

How Many Times Have the Mets Beat the Red Sox?

While historical win-loss numbers vary, this Mets vs Red Sox pick focuses on current form. The model suggests today’s matchup favors Boston slightly more than books are pricing.

Model Used For My Mets vs Red Sox Best Bet Prediction

This Mets vs Red Sox prediction uses my pre-built MLB model, which evaluates:

• Expected runs based on opposing pitching
• Park factor at Fenway
• Bullpen depth and fatigue
• Recent batting splits

What Chance Does Boston Have of Beating New York?

According to the model, the Mets are projected to score 5.5 runs while the Red Sox are projected at 4.5. However, Rithmm assigns a 61% probability for Boston to cover the +1.5 run line—suggesting solid value on that side.

Best Odds for Mets vs Red Sox

Line shopping highlights +1.5 on the Red Sox at -130 with PointsBet and William Hill NJ, the best value available. Most books sit around -135 to -140.

My Pick for Mets vs Red Sox

My Mets vs Red Sox pick is Red Sox +1.5. Despite injury concerns, the model's 61% cover probability and favorable home setting give Boston an edge. Backing the run line is the best value in this matchup.

Explore More Mets vs Red Sox Predictions

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• AI MLB Player Props for deeper in-game data

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