Missouri vs Alabama: AI Predictions - College Football

We're heading down south again this week to see #21 Missouri travel to Alabama to take on the #15 ranked Crimson Tide in the 8th meeting between these two SEC schools. Alabama holds a 5 - 2 lead in the series and has beaten the Tigers in their last four meetings since Missouri joined the SEC.

Let's see how I used the Rithmm App to create custom sports betting models to get my AI prediction for the Missouri Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide.

Preview of Missouri vs Alabama AI Prediction

• Date: Saturday October 26th
• Time: 3:30 PM ET
• Location: Bryant Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
• Surface: Natural Grass
• How to Watch: ABC

Missouri Preview

The 21st ranked Tigers will enter Saban Field at Bryant Denny Stadium on Saturday coming off of a come-from-behind win over the Auburn Tigers 21 - 17. Missouri was down 17 - 6 going into the fourth quarter when their defense stiffened and their offense put up 15 unanswered points to down Auburn.

Quarterback Brady Cook, who injured his ankle on the first series of the game, missed the entire first half and most of the third quarter, and was actually taken to the hospital, hobbled back into the game with 31 seconds remaining in the quarter and threw a 78 yard pass to Mookie Cooper who was pulled down at the two-yard line. On the next play running back Marcus Carroll ran it in for their first touchdown of the game.

Cook was 11 for 22 on the day with 194 yards passing with no touchdowns or interceptions and was sacked four times. Cook also capped off his return drive with a 2-point conversion run putting the Tigers within three points of Auburn.

Wideouts Theo Wease Jr and Luther Burden III were instrumental in the last quarter drives that set up the Mizzou victory with Wease converting a third-and-ten and Burden getting a critical fourth-and-five first down in that last series.

The Tigers defense was the real hero of the day as they held Auburn to 286 yards in total offense and shut down drives in the late period to help Missouri seal the win.

Missouri is currently ranked 21st in the AP Top 25 as well as 20th in the ESPN College Football Power Index for 2024.

Alabama Preview

The 15th ranked Crimson Tide enter this game having lost two of their last three games against Vanderbilt in the upset three weeks ago, a near loss to South Carolina two weeks ago and Tennessee last week. And if Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava had played as well in the first half as he did in the second half, this game would not have even been close.

As I said in last week's article, this is not your father's Alabama team.

Alabama took the early lead last week against the Volunteers in spite of quarterback Jalen Milroe struggling again to find his form as he went 25 of 45 for 239 yards passing with one touchdown and two interceptions. The entire Tide offense was anemic last week as they only rushed for 89 yards on the day. Milroe ran for more than that himself in week two in the upset win over Georgia when he had 117.

The Tide defense had a solid first half against the Volunteers causing three turnovers and holding Tennessee to just seven points. Led by a linebacking corps made up of Jihaad Campbell with his 34 tackles and 1.5 sacks, Deontae Lawson's 29 tackles and two sacks  and Que Robinson's 10 tackles and four sacks. This squad will ultimately be the difference in an Alabama win or loss this week.

Alabama is currently ranked 15th in the AP Top 25 as well as 3rd in the ESPN College Football Power Index for 2024.

How I use Models for Missouri vs Alabama AI Prediction

I grew up watching Missouri play on Saturday's back in their Big 8 days and have now lived in SEC territory for over 30 years, so I'm quite familiar with watching Alabama's dominance. But all dynasties come to an end and I think this is the beginning of Alabama rebuilding into a new-look team, assuming they give Kalen DeBoer enough time to develop his own players and systems.

All of that being said, I'm under no illusion that Missouri will win this game. They are going into Alabama with a banged up quarterback and playing a team that, if the real Jalen Milroe stands up, is very hard to beat. But, after watching the Tide play this season, I have to ask myself, can the Tigers win at Alabama?

And as I say time and again, this is exactly the place where I go to my Rithmm app to help me determine if my own metrics line up.

Both teams are good. Both teams, with healthy quarterbacks who are on their game, are good. Both defenses, when given some time to rest between series, are good. In a vacuum, this game should be a close, low scoring affair. But that's not the world we're living in right now. Alabama's struggles are legendary this year as they haven't lost two conference games before November since 2006!

Missouri, on the other hand, is playing some of its best ball now and, in spite of throwing up a dud against a very good Texas A&M team this season, have looked the part. If Cook can find a way to mend his injured ankle before Saturday, they have as good of a shot as anyone to beat this Alabama team.

Alabama is heavily favored to win. They are currently -535 on the moneyline and laying -13.5 on the spread. But hold that thought. This line opened at -13.5 and after slipping up to -14 for a hot second, has settled back to -13.5. The money at the time of this writing has Alabama favored by a 67% bet split. If they are so favored, why isn't this line moving?

• Missouri is 13 - 5 against the spread in their last 18 games
• Missouri is 5 -1 against the spread in their last 6 games on the road
• Missouri is 4 - 1 against the spread in their last 5 games in October
• Alabama is 2 -4 against the spread in their last 6 games
• Alabama is 1 - 4 against the spread in their last 5 games in October

As you can see in the model above, neither team has been good against the spread this season and with the money being heavy on Alabama, but the line somewhat frozen, now looks like the time to grab that +13.5 for Mizzou. I do think this game will be closer than it may seem. And with Rithmm showing a 64.9% win probability, I think I'm taking Missouri +13.5.

Again, this isn't your father's Alabama.

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