Lynx vs Liberty: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models - Game 4

The Liberty take their 2 - 1 series lead into Minnesota tonight for game four of the WNBA finals.

See how I used the Rithmm App to create custom sports betting models to get my AI prediction for New York vs Minnesota.

Preview of Liberty vs Lynx AI Prediction

• Date: Friday October 18, 2024
• Time: 8:00 PM ET
• Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
• How to Watch: ESPN

Liberty Preview

The New York Liberty are chasing their first WNBA title and look to close it out this evening against the Lynx.

Breanna Stewart knows what’s at stake and is ready to bring the pressure to Minnesota. "Just knowing that we're one win away...that's what's the most motivating" Stewart said. "Knowing what we did (Wednesday) wasn't good enough, and it needs to be even better...because we're going to get everything that Minny's got. But we want this one bad."

New York leads the series 2 - 1 and is coming off of a comeback win in Game 3 on Wednesday night winning 80 - 77 when Sabrina Ionescu hit a tiebreaking 3-point shot from near half court with one second remaining.

The Liberty will lean on their league leading defensive rating averaging 28.1 defensive rebounds, 7.9 steals and 4.5 blocks per game.

Offensively, New York will continue to count on Forward Breanna Stewart who is averaging 20.4 points per game with 8.5 rebounds, Sabrina Ionescu with 18.2 points per game and Center Jonquel Jones who has 14.2 points per game and nine rebounds per game.

Lynx Preview

Minnesota comes into tonight's game one loss from elimination and wants to do everything they can to hold on for a Game 5.

Napheesa Collier said after the Wednesday night loss "I thought we played really well for the whole game. The only problem was that we didn't execute on offense at the end. We just really missed easy shots that we alway make. But we played well enough to win the game. They made shots at the end and we didn't."

Collier believes the Lynx will come out with the same mindset and be aggressive against this tough Liberty defense.

The Lynx will need even more production from the likes of Collier who averages 20.4 points per game with 9.7 rebounds, Guard Courtney Williams and her 11.1 points per game and 4.7 rebounds and Kayla McBride and her 15 points per game.

Without more production on the offensive end the Lynx will face elimination on their home court this evening.

How I use Rithmm Models for Liberty vs Lynx AI Prediction

Rithmm continues to provide the essential information I need to help me make decisions when my other metrics aren't fully in agreement. Here are some trends for this evening's matchup:

• The total has gone over in 4 of the Lynx last 6 games
• The total has gone under in 6 of the Lynx last 9 games at home
• The total has gone under in 4 of the Liberty's last 5 road games
• The Lynx are 19 - 6 straight up in their last 25 games
• The Liberty are 7 - 2 straight up in their last 9 games

I'm not going to blow smoke here, this was a tough call. This game could go under just as easily, but as you can see above, this model liked the over quite a bit. Couple that with the money being on the over to the tune of a 54% bet split and the line basically holding steady at around 158.5 or 159 at most books, you can see this possibly going either way. But again, this model likes this over so we're going to play the model and see where that takes us. If you  can find a 158, that's where I'd try to land if possible.

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