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Liberty vs Mercury: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models

June 18, 2024

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The New York Liberty take on the Phoenix Mercury in Phoenix at 10:00 PM EST on ESPN. This is a match up featuring last season’s second place regular season team and last place regular season team. This year, the Liberty have kept up their winning ways and the Mercury have had a small resurgence from the bottom of the standings. Let’s take a look at the Liberty vs Mercury AI Predictions for what the models say are the best bets of this Tuesday night showcase.

Preview of my Liberty vs Mercury Prediction

The New York Liberty (12-2) come into this match up riding a season-long eight game winning streak and playing as good as ever. They look to continue their dominance over the Mercury who are .500 on the season (7-7) and haven’t been able to find a consistent rhythm so far in 2024.

This is the second match up of the season between these teams with the Liberty winning the first game 81-78.

New York Liberty Preview

The Liberty are led by their two superstars, Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu. Stewart, the reigning MVP, is averaging 18.6 points per game, 9.6 rebounds per game, and 3.5 assists per game. Ionescu is second on the team with 17.6 points per game and leads the team with 5.9 assists per game.

As a team, the Liberty average 86.1 points per game which is good for third in the league. However, their 109.5 offensive rating is the best in the league by 2.3 points. They are second in the WNBA in field goal percentage and despite their relatively slow PACE, they are fourth in the league in field goals attempted.

The Liberty started the season just 1-7 against the spread but are 5-1 in their last 6 games against the spread and are starting to put teams away early.

Phoenix Mercury Preview

The Mercury are much improved from last season but are still just 7-7 on the season. They are led by Kahleah Cooper (24.0 ppg), Brittney Griner (22.0 ppg), and WNBA legend Diana Taurasi (16.7 ppg).

The Mercury are in the upper half of the league in team points per game with 82.1 but are in the bottom half in offensive rating with 100.9. They have the third highest PACE in the league at 80.0 but only capitalizing on 41.9 percent of field goals.

They are a run and gun type of team with fast pace of play and the second most attempted threes in the league on a per game basis. Unfortunately, they convert on just 33.1 percent of those threes which is right in the middle of the pack.

On the season, the Mercury are 9-5 ATS despite their 7-7 actual record. They have also won their last four games ATS and five of their last six.

How I Use Rithmm Models for Liberty vs Mercury AI Prediction

When contemplating a bet I’m going to make, I first do the ‘on the surface’ research like the statistics mentioned above and then I dive into the game lines. The spread for this game right now is listed as Liberty -6.0.

My initial inclination is this is a great line and likely right on the button but the research I’ve done have me leaning towards picking the Liberty.

With my initial thoughts and research done, I fire up the Rithmm app and see if the models that have been created confirm my theories for my WNBA AI prediction.

Let's take a look at the Rithmm AI custom betting models that I personally created with the Rithmm app.  

The first model, “Rithmm AI”, which takes into account all categories equally with the exception of tempo, have the Liberty vs Mercury AI prediction as Liberty -15.1. A whopping 9-point difference than the actual spread.

The “All Offensive” model that I had customized that puts an emphasis on all offensive categories, have the Liberty vs Mercury AI prediction as Liberty -12.6. The slightly smaller number makes sense because the Rithmm AI model neglects tempo and Mercury’s high pace would actually benefit the Liberty.

Lastly, the “Defensive/Tempo” model that I customized featuring tempo, three pointers , and defense, have the Liberty vs Mercury AI prediction as Liberty -14.9.

My Liberty vs Mercury AI Prediction

Being able to account for a number of different team characteristics with multiple customized sports betting models and with all three of the models created in the Rithmm app recommending the Liberty in my Liberty vs Mercury AI Prediction.

All of the models being analyzed clearly tell me the same story. The Liberty should win and they should win big. For those reasons, I’m taking the Liberty -6.0 (vs the Mercury).

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