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Fever vs Mercury: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models

July 12, 2024

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The Phoenix Mercury go head-to-head with the Indiana Fever at 9:30PM EST in Indiana. The match up features the Mercury who have climbed over.500 and look to continuing righting the ship and the Fever who are led by rookie sensation and Rookie of the Year candidate, Caitlin Clark.

Both teams are square in the middle of the standings and are looking to take a jump in the second half of the WNBA season. Let’s take a look at the Mercury vs Fever AI Predictions for what the models say are the best bets of this Friday night ESPN showcase.

Read about how I used Rithmm to build a custom sports betting model to arrive at my AI WNBA pick for the IND vs PHO.

Preview of Fever vs Mercury AI Prediction

The Indiana Fever (9-14) enter this matchup on a bit of a slide. After winning four in a row, the Fever have lost four of their next six games. The Fever have turned their season around after starting the season 1-8 but have some work to do in order to be in the upper echelon of teams.

The Phoenix Mercury (12-10) have finally gone over that. 500 mark after a three-game winning streak and a stretch that saw them win eight of their last 12. They will look to continue their run against this high-profile Fever team.

This is the second match up of the season between these teams with the Fever winning the first game 88-82. That game was just 13 days ago and can give us a lot of intel for betting this game.

Let's see what my Indiana vs Phoenix AI prediction says.

Indiana Fever Preview

The Fever are led by 2023 and 2023, first overall draft picks Aliyah Boston and Caitlin Clark. Clark, the lightning rod of the WNBA has put together a terrific rookie season so far and is the leading vote getter for the All-Star game. Clark leads the Fever in scoring with 16.7 ppg and Mitchell is second with 16.4 ppg. Clark also adds 7.6 assists per game which is second best in the league.

The Fever’s season is really a tale of two halfs so far. They have gone through a major turnaround since the start of the season but the huge progress has too a bit of a hit in the recent stretch. In May, the Fever went 1-8 while shooting 42.3 percent from the field, averaging 79.1 points per game, with 14.4 turnover, and 18.8 assists. In June and July, their record is 8-6 while bettering their shooting percentage to 45.7 percent, averaging 84.7 points per game, with just 11.5 turnovers, and upping their assists to 22.2 per game.

For the season, the Fever league statistics standings, are all over the place but fall in the middle of the pack. They are fourth in field goal percentage, seventh in points per game, eighth in total rebounds, and seventh in assists.

They are 9-14 on the season but they are 12-11 against the spread. They have also hit the over 15 times in their 23 games.

This plays a key role in my Fever vs Mercury AI prediction.

Phoenix Mercury Preview

The Phoenix Mercury are on their own mini streak. Having won three in a row, they are starting to find their rhythm. They are led by a veteran group of stars, Kahleah Cooper (23.0 ppg), Brittney Griner (19.7 ppg), Diana Taurasi (16.6 ppg), and Natasha Cloud (12.5 ppg). Cooper is second in scoring behind just MVP front runner A’ja Wilson.

Like the Fever, the Mercury’s team statistics fall right in the middle of the pack. They are fourth in points per game, sixth in field goal percentage, and eighth in assists per game.

They are the third fastest team in the league in Pace and fourth in offensive rating but ninth in defensive rating.

The Mercury are finding their rhythm, and it shows in their actual record at 12-10 but even more against the spread where they are 14-8. They’ve hit the over just 9 times out of their 22 games.

Let's break down my Rithmm AI sports prediction Fever vs Mercury pick for Sunday.

How I Use Rithmm Models for my Fever vs Mercury AI Prediction

This is an interesting game to look at when trying to take a betting side. The spread and over/under on this game is Mercury -3 and 175. At first glance, the spread seams like a spot on prediction. With the way the Mercury have been playing and with the Fever’s second half surge and being home, the spread is tight.

With that said, I am looking at the over/under for value. 175 seems like a high number for these teams who average a combined 164.5 points.

Looking at the numbers and the trends of these teams, I am leaning towards the under.

With my initial thoughts and research done, let’s turn to the Rithmm app and see if the models that have been created confirm my theories for my WNBA AI prediction.

Let's take a look at the Rithmm AI custom betting models that I personally created with the Rithmm app.  

The first model, “Rithmm AI”, which is a model that equally weighs all categories with the exception of Tempo, have the Mercury vs Fever AI prediction total as 173.7. This is a slight edge over the given line of 175.

Fever vs Mercury AI Prediction

The “All Offensive” model that I had customized that puts heavy emphasis on all offensive categories, have the Mercury vs Fever AI prediction total as 169.4. This os a fairly large edge towards the under and is a Rithmm app recommended bet.

Fever vs Mercury AI Prediction

Lastly, the “Defensive/Tempo” model that I customized featuring tempo, three pointers , and defense, have the Mercury vs Fever AI prediction total as 166.8. This is another large edge for the under and is also a Rithmm app recommended bet.

Fever vs Mercury AI Prediction

My Fever vs Storm prediction

With my own research and with two of three of the models showcasing a significant edge on the under, I am inclined to stick with my first thought. Feeling even more confident with the Rithmm recommendations, I’m taking the UNDER at 175 of the Mercury vs Fever match up.

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