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Fever vs Aces: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models

July 2, 2024

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The Indiana Fever square off against reigning champion, the Las Vegas Aces in a high-profile, ESPN matchup at 9:30 PM EST in Las Vegas. The match up features last season’s reigning champion who are still finding their 2024 rhythm and the Fever who are led by lightning rod rookie, Caitlin Clark.

Both teams fall in the middle of the standings so far this year and are looking to climb the standings and position themselves for a playoff run. Let’s take a look at the Fever vs Aces AI Predictions for what the models say are the best bets of this Tuesday night ESPN showcase.

Preview of my Fever vs. Aces AI Prediction

The Indiana Fever (8-12) come into this match beginning to find their stride. They have won six of their last nine games with a streak of four in a row mixed in there. This is after starting the season 1-8. The Las Vegas Aces also have begun to regain their footing, now sitting at 10-6 and have won their last four and five of their last six. These are two of the most high-profile teams in the WNBA and fireworks are bound to happen when they battle.

This is the second match up of the season between these teams with the Aces winning the first game 99-80. That game was back in May and was before either one of these teams started to figure it out. This data is essential in my Fever vs Aces AI prediction.

Indiana Fever Preview

The Fever are led by the last two, first overall draft picks in lightning rod and rookie sensation, Caitlin Clark and 2023 first overall pick Aliyah Boston, as well as 2018 second overall pick and team leading scorer Kelsey Mitchell. Clark (16.2 ppg) and Mitchell (16.3 ppg) lead the team with the scoring punch and Boston carries the rebounding load averaging 8.3 per game.

The Fever’s season can’t really be looked at in its entirety because of the major turnaround they have undertaken. In May, the Fever went 1-8 while shooting 42.3 percent from the field, averaging 79.1 points per game, with 14.4 turnover, and 18.8 assists. In June, their record for the month was 7-4 while bettering their shooting percentage to 45.8 percent, averaging 82.6 points per game, with just 13.2 turnovers, and upping their assists to 21.1 per game.

It’s a stark difference and their recent play should be accounted for when considering the lines.

Overall, the Fever league statistics standings, like their record, fall in the middle of the pack. They are fourth in field goal percentage, sixth in points per game, eighth in total rebounds, and fourth in assists.

They are 8-12 on the season but they are 11-9 against the spread. They have also hit the over 14 times in their 20 games.  

Las Vegas Aces Preview

The Aces have continued their hot streak and come into this game riding a four game winning streak. The leader of the team, and one of the league MVP favorites so far, A’ja Wilson has carried them on her back. She leads the league in points per game with 26.9 and in win shares with 4.4 and she’s second in rebounds per game with 11.1.

The other two stars, Kelsey Plum (17.3 ppg) and Jackie Young (18.9 ppg) on the Aces help round out this stellar team.

Offense is the name of the game for this Aces squad and it shows in their team wide statistics and rankings. They are first in points per game (87.8), third in field goal percentage (44.5 percent), first in defensive rebounds (28.3 per game), and second in offensive rating (108.8).

The Aces are finding their rhythm, and it shows in their actual record at 10-6 but against the spread they are just 6-10. They’ve hit the over 9 times out of their 16 games.

This insight plays a key role in my Fever vs Aces AI prediction.

How I Use Rithmm Models for Fever vs Aces AI Prediction

My first thought about this game after doing the initial research is I really like how the Fever have been playing. Knowing that they started off slow but have found a groove, I feel like the spread may reflect their slow start. While Aces are a veteran team and are also getting into their winning ways, they have not been great ATS while the Fever have been. The lines on this game are Aces -13.5 and an O/U of 175.5.

I am leaning towards the Fever with the points because of their recent success and the bias I perceive the spread has with their slow start.

With my initial thoughts and research done, let’s turn to the Rithmm app and see if the models that have been created confirm my theories for my WNBA AI prediction.

Let's take a look at the Rithmm AI custom betting models that I personally created with the Rithmm app.  

The first model, “Rithmm AI”, which is a model that equally weighs most categories with the exception of Tempo, have the Fever vs Aces AI prediction spread as Aces -17.2. This is a pretty big edge over the given line of -13.5.

Fever vs Aces: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models

The “All Offensive” model that I had customized that puts heavy emphasis on all offensive categories, have the Fever vs Aces AI prediction spread as Fever +12. This model actually gives the edge towards the Fever by a full 1.5 points when comparing against the given spread.

Fever vs Aces: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models

Lastly, the “Defensive/Tempo” model that I customized featuring tempo, three pointers , and defense, have the Fever vs Aces AI prediction spread as Fever +11.9. This model also gives the edge towards the Fever by 1.6 points compared to the given spread.

Fever vs Aces: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models

My Fever vs Aces AI Prediction

With my own research and with two of three of the models showcasing an edge on the Fever with the points, I am inclined to stick with my first thought.

I am choosing to go with my research around how the Fever have turned their season around, have been successful against the spread, and with the two models that have garnered past success. I’m taking the Fever with the points at +13.5 in the Fever vs Aces match up.

Conclusions on My Fever vs Aces AI Predictions

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