Ball State vs Buffalo: AI Predictions - College Football

The Cardinals go into Buffalo to take on the Bulls tonight in a MAC Conference matchup.

Let's see how I used the Rithmm App to create custom sports betting models to get my AI prediction for Ball State vs Buffalo.

Preview of Ball State vs Buffalo AI Prediction

• Date: Tuesday November 12th
• Time: 7:00 PM ET
• Location: UB Stadium, Getzville, NY
• Surface: A-Turf Titan
• How to Watch: CBS Sports Network

Ball State Preview

The Ball State Cardinals are 3 - 6 on the season and sit 9th in the MAC Conference with a 2 - 3 conference record and are coming off of a loss last week to Miami OH 27 - 21.

The Cardinals are not a strong team and have struggled on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. They are the 6th worst defensive team in college ball giving up 463.1 total yards per game on but look a little better on the offense, putting up 336 yards per game while ranking 107th.

Quarterback Kadin Semonza threw for 280 yards on 23 of 36 passing with one touchdown and two interceptions while also being sacked three times. He has 16 touchdowns on the season with nine interceptions. Semonza is a true pocket passer and will not be a burden to Buffalo with his legs.

The Cardinals rushing offense is in the bottom 25 with 106.6 yards per game and is anchored by running back Braedon Sloan who has 518 yards on 126 carries this season for a 4.1 yard per carry average.

Ball State is not ranked in the AP Top 25 and is ranked 124th in the ESPN College Football Power Index for 2024.

Buffalo Preview

The Bulls run into tonight's game with a 5 - 4 overall record and a 3 - 2 record in the MAC Conference and are coming off of a win 10 days ago against the Akron Zips 41 - 30.

Buffalo ranks 98th in the FBS with 24.2 points per game but is ranked in the bottom 25 in total offense with 327.7 yards per game. Their defense is ranked 105th in the FBS only allowing 408.7 yards per game and have forced 14 turnovers on the season which ranks them 43rd in the FBS.

The Bulls are led by quarterback C.J. Ogbonna who was 17 of 29 for 210 yards passing against Akron with two touchdowns and no interceptions or sacks. Ogbonna also carried the ball eight times for 63 yards and a touchdown.

Running back Al-Jay Henderson has rushed for 562 yards on 101 carries and four touchdowns this season and the Bulls are ranked 70th in the FBS with 153.4 yards rushing per game.

Buffalo is not ranked in the AP Top 25 and is ranked 116th in the ESPN College Football Power Index for 2024.

How I use Models for Ball State vs Buffalo AI Prediction

I will be going out on a bit of a limb here today as most of my models are in disagreement not only with my other metrics but with each other.

I like this Rithmm model. It's had some success this season and it's calling for a 56% win probability. Not the highest I've ever chosen but also not the lowest I've ever won with.

The money is definitely to the over with a 82% bet split, but the bar bettors love the overs, so that's not always indicative of what is really happening. What did happen is the line opened at 53.5 and has only gone up a point to 54.5. That's a lot of money to only move the needle a smidgen. Please do your own diligence here. Neither defense is particularly good and neither offense is particularly potent, so 54 points may be a hard line to get to.

Last week I said there are times when I have to go out on a limb and I again believe this is one of them (last week this hit so...just saying). I'm trusting the models and going with the over 54.5

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