Auburn vs Alabama: AI Predictions - College Football

The Auburn Tigers will make their way into Tuscaloosa to take on their conference rival Alabama Crimson Tide in the Iron Bowl for state bragging rights.

Let's see how I used the Rithmm App to create custom sports betting models to get my AI prediction for Auburn vs Alabama.

Preview of Auburn vs Alabama AI Prediction

• Date: Saturday November 30th
• Time: 3:30 PM ET
• Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
• Surface: Natural Grass
• How to Watch: ABC

Auburn Preview

When the Tigers come to Tuscaloosa lately, it's been nothing short of a debacle, having lost their last six meetings by double digits and five of them by 18 or more points. So it makes sense that the books currently have the Tigers as +11.5 point dogs.

But this season feels different as Auburn, who is 5 - 6 on the season and 2 - 5 in the SEC Conference, has a two game winning streak going and have won three of their last four games including beating a tough ranked Texas A&M team last week 43 - 41.

It took four overtimes to do it but Auburn was finally able to get the win when quarterback Payton Thorne hit KeAndre Lambert-Smith for a two-point play in the final overtime period. After the game, head coach Hugh Freeze said, “It’s been that kind of year where you just battle through and you fight through and you keep climbing cliffs...Our locker room has continued to fight and no matter what people say, they just have chosen to say we’re going to fight to the finish.”

Thorne threw for 301 yards and two touchdowns along with one interception and two sacks last week. Both touchdown passes went to Cam Coleman who had seven catches and 128 yards while Lambert-Smith added another 104 yards on two receptions. Running back Jarquez Hunter also ran the ball 28 times for 130 yards and three touchdowns.

Auburn is ranked 29th in the ESPN College Football Power Index for 2024.

Alabama Preview

The Crimson Tide are 8 - 3 this season with a 4 - 3 record in the SEC as the disappointing season continued last week with a lethargic loss to unranked Oklahoma 24 - 3.

Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe went 11 of 26 for 164 yards with three interceptions and one sack while only rushing for seven yards on 15 carries and no touchdowns. The offense was so sluggish the Sooners held Alabama to only 243 yards of total offense.

The Tide took a hit on defense as well as they lost linebacker Deontae Lawson for the season to injury. Alabama gave up 325 total yards against Oklahoma including 257 on the ground.

Alabama is 4th in the ESPN College Football Power Index for 2024.

How I use Models for Auburn vs Alabama AI Prediction

This game is a tale of two teams that, at least for the moment, have momentum going in different directions. Auburn is coming off of an exciting win while Alabama is feeling the sting of what can only be described as possibly a season defining loss that will carry with them into the bowl games.

Momentum is a strong metric. And while it's not definable by a number, it can be seen with the naked eye and, looking at both of these teams as they came off of their respective fields last week, the momentum is strong with Auburn.

When we jump into our Rithmm app we see the books have Alabama favored by -11.5, a line that has fallen from -13 at open, and the money is showing their displeasure with this as well.  Currently there is a 56% bet split for Auburn to cover the +11.5 so I expect this line to continue down at least in the near term.

This model has a 67.9% win probability and is the most confident of all of my models.

The truly crazy thing here is all three of my models see Auburn winning this game outright. It's as if the models saw how poorly the Tide played last week as well.

These are value bets. When taken as a whole with your entire slate for the day, these are the kinds of bets you take to add additional value and you have to accept that there may be a possibility they will not hit. The upside is just too high to pass them up.

I'll be taking Auburn +11.5 and +360 on the moneyline.

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