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Aces vs Mercury: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models

June 13, 2024

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The Las Vegas Aces look to figure things out in the desert against the Phoenix Mercury. Read about how I used Rithmm to build a custom sports betting model to arrive at my Aces vs Mercury AI prediction.

Preview of Aces vs Mercury AI Prediction

This will be the third matchup between Vegas and Phoenix. They split the first two meetings, both in Vegas. With the Aces taking the season opener 89-80 then the Mercury getting revenge one week later 98-88.

This matchup will feature seven recent invites to the US Olympics Women’s Basketball Roster. From the Mercury, Brittany Griner, Kahleah Copper, and Diana Taurasi. From the Aces, A’Ja Wilson, Jackie Young, Kelsey Plum, and possibly Chelsea Gray. Gray has yet to play this year but for the first time is listed as questionable on the injury list. If Gray plays that will be huge for the Aces.  

Las Vegas Aces Preview

Aces have been struggling without Gray. Losing three in a row and racking up five losses on the young season. Last year Vegas only had six regular-season losses.  Gray averaged 15 points and 7 assists last year. Without her running the offense Vegas is averaging  85 points a game, which is down from the 92 they averaged last year. This plays a key role in my Aces vs Mercury AI Prediction.

Phoenix Mercury Preview

Mercury has also been impacted by injury this year. But they recently welcomed back Griner two games ago. Having Griner on the court has aided in the team’s two-game winning streak. The Mercury are a high-volume three-point shooting team. They average just under ten makes a game on just under thirty attempts. This could spell trouble for the Aces. Aces are the worst in the league at defending the three-point line, allowing their opponents to shoot 39 percent from behind the arc.

Conversely, Vegas also averages nine made three-pointers a game on twenty-eight shots. This could be a high-scoring affair in Phoenix tonight.

Let's break down my Rithmm WNBA pick for Monday's Aces vs Mercury game.

How I Use Rithmm Models for my Aces vs Mercury AI Prediction

The way I utilize Rithmm AI WNBA Picks is as a tool for my Aces vs Mercury AI Prediction. First I do my research, as stated above both these teams shoot the three ball well, each features at least three Olympians, and the prior two matchups have combined for an average of 177 points.

During my research, I discovered the following trends:

  • Over is 6-0 in Aces last 6 games following a ATS loss.
  • Over is 4-0 in Aces last 4 games following a straight-up loss.
  • Over is 5-2-1 in Aces last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.
  • Over is 15-6-1 in Aces last 22 vs. Western Conference.
  • Over is 6-0 in Mercury last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
  • Over is 6-2 in Mercury last 8 games following a ATS win.
  • Over is 20-9-1 in Mercury last 30 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

With all the trends and the fact both teams will knock down the three-ball, I’m leaning towards the over. At the time of writing a total of 166 is on the board. Now let's look at what my custom Rithmm AI models say about tonight’s action.

Using Rithmm Models to Solidify My Aces vs Mercury AI Prediction

Below you will see two Rithmm AI models for the Aces vs Mercury game, both total score probability:

Aces vs Mercury, AI, predictive model, over/under, wnba action

This model shows the currently posted total of 167 points, the total ticked up a point after I started writing. Let's break down the model. This model is the Rithmm AI model that Rithmm provided for me for my Aces vs Mercury AI Prediction. With Rithmm, users can have Rithmm build a model or customize one based on preferences.

First thing I look for is that beautiful Green Star. Green means there is a high probability of the bet cashing. In this case, there is a 55.7 percent chance of the total going over 167 points.  Next, I look for the model’s prediction, which is 171.9 points. That is almost five points of value and I got six because I was able to grab the opening number of 166.

And because I always like to double-check the math, let's also look at my customized model.

Aces vs Mercury, AI, predictive model, over/under, wnba action

As they say, measure twice and cut once. This model backs the Rithmm AI model. Green Start check, probability of 59.7 percent check, and a total of 172 check!

My Aces vs Mercury prediction

Let's finish this up! I’m going with the over 166 points in tonight’s action. The trends point that way and the Rithmm models agree. This number may run but Rithmm AI says the total is good up to 170. Good luck and remember always gamble responsibly.

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