The Top Ten Most Volatile College Football Teams this Season

November 18, 2022

We’ve been having some fun looking at the most volatile teams this season, those who lost games they should have won and those who won games they had no business winning. Here are our Top Ten Most Volatile College Football Teams this season, ten games into the season: 

1. Appalachian State 

App State’s loss to Texas State (92% win prob), their upset over Texas A&M (15% win prob), and their upset against Troy (28% win prob) has landed the Mountaineers in the top spot for Most Volatile Team this Season. 

2. Notre Dame

Notre Dame’s loss to Marshall holds the second spot for biggest upset of the year (99.8% win prob, compared to Marshall’s 0.2% chance). Their loss to Stanford was also a big factor (97% win prob), followed by their win over Clemson (11% win prob). 

3. Boston College

Boston College’s 21-20 win over NC State was the biggest upset of the season so far (a 0.13% win prob, compared to NC State’s 99.87% win prob). Their 34-33 win over Louisville (3% win prob) and their loss to Virginia Tech (63% win prob) also contributed to their third place ranking. 

4. Bowling Green

Bowling Green’s win over Marshall (16% win prob), their seven-overtime loss to Eastern Kentucky (79% win prob), their win over Central Michigan (29% win prob), and their loss to Kent State (59% win prob) lands the Falcons in the fourth spot for most volatile teams this season. 


Coming in at number five is the University of Texas El Paso. Their win over Boise State (3% win prob), their loss to New Mexico (86% win prob), their win over Florida Atlantic (38% win prob), and their loss to Louisiana Tech (59% win prob) were most influential to their ranking. 

6. Marshall

As mentioned above, Marshall’s win over Notre Dame (0.2% win prob), their loss to Bowling Green (83% win prob), and their win over Appalachian State (43% win prob) all had an impact on those opponents ranking in the top five. Beyond those three games, their win against James Madison (46% win prob) puts the Thundering Herd in sixth place. 

7. Rice

Rice’s win over Louisiana (11% win prob), their loss to Charlotte (86.6% win prob), their win over UAB (23% win prob) lands the Owls at number seven. 

8. Arkansas

The Razorbacks’ unexpected losses to Liberty (96% win prob) and Texas A&M (92% win prob) landed Arkansas in the top ten this season. 

9. Louisville

Louisville had quite a few strange games. Their loss to Boston College (96% win prob) was most influential to this ranking, followed by their wins against UCF (18% win prob), Pittsburgh (33% win prob) and Wake Forest (43% win prob). 

10. Georgia State 

Coming in at number ten are the Panthers of Georgia State. They had two tough losses that they should have won, their 42-41 loss to Charlotte (98% win prob) and their 31-28 loss to UL Monroe (76% win prob). 

Be sure to keep the unpredictability of these teams in mind as you make bets the rest of the season. Our goal is to continue to provide our users with knowledge they can utilize to be more informed bettors and make smarter bets! 

Exclusive Offers

See All Offers

Ready to get free props & picks daily?

Download Rithmm now and join the community of smart bettors. Access free AI sports picks, AI player props, explore our subscription tiers, and unlock the full potential of Rithmm.

Download Now

Exclusive Offers

See All Offers

Ready to get free props & picks daily?

Scan to Download the App