840 bets. 56.5% win rate. +$7,837. Here's what the models saw that the market missed.
The 2026 NBA Playoffs have been one of the most profitable postseasons in Rithmm's history. From April 18 through June 1 (first round through conference finals), Rithmm's models identified a repeatable, data-driven pattern in NBA player props that produced an 8.48% ROI across hundreds of bets.
This is not a "bet unders in the playoffs" article. Knowing that playoff defense tightens does not make you money. Knowing which specific props are mispriced does. That's what Rithmm's models do, and this postseason, the results show exactly what that looks like in practice.
Rithmm's models evaluate each prop line individually, analyzing player matchups, defensive schemes, pace, historical playoff performance, and line movement to determine whether a given number is set too high or too low. There is no directional bias. The models follow the math.
This postseason, the math pointed heavily toward unders. Not because unders are always good in the playoffs (they are not), but because the market was systematically overpricing certain stat categories, and Rithmm's models identified it bet by bet.
The breakdown across 840 playoff prop bets tells the story. Rebounds + Assists unders were the standout, going 82-45 for a 64.6% win rate and +20.69% ROI across 127 bets. That volume matters. This is not a lucky 10-bet stretch. Rebounds unders hit at 61.8% for +13.99% ROI (34-21). Three-pointers unders came in at 52.9% for +13.15% ROI (55-49), a category where recreational bettors typically lean over. Points + Rebounds unders went 33-21 for +12.26% ROI. Points unders landed at 58.5% and +10.75% (24-17). Points + Assists unders went 32-21 for +10.30% ROI. Blocks unders, even as a lower-volume category, produced +7.66% ROI at 57.9% (33-24).
The headline across all categories: 56.5% win rate, 8.48% ROI, +$7,837. Rebounds + Assists unders at 64.6% and +20.69% ROI is the kind of sustained signal the models found and pressed across a full postseason.
There are real structural reasons why certain stat categories get overpriced in the playoffs. Pace slows. Defensive schemes tighten. Combined stat lines like Rebs+Asts compress as offenses simplify and role players get neutralized by prepared opponents.
Sportsbooks know this too, but they face a different problem. Recreational bettors like overs. They are more fun to root for. Books shade lines to balance action, which means the under often carries a small built-in advantage before the basketball factors even kick in.
Here is the critical point: none of that tells you which specific prop to bet.
Knowing that playoff defense tightens does not tell you whether this player's Rebs+Asts line is set at 6.5 or 8.5, whether his matchup is favorable or brutal, or whether the line has already moved to account for everything above. Betting unders blindly because "it's the playoffs" would not produce these results. Most unders lose too.
What produced these results is models that evaluated each line on its own merits and only flagged the ones where the math confirmed the value was real.
The Knicks and Spurs tip off June 3. The same market dynamics that created mispriced props throughout the postseason do not disappear in the Finals. If anything, the stakes and the public betting volume increase, which can widen inefficiencies further.
Rithmm's models are already running Finals props. They will identify which lines have value (over or under, whichever direction the math points) the same way they did across 840 bets this postseason.
The models do the work. You make the bet.
If you want Rithmm's models working for you before the NBA Finals tips off Wednesday night, start your free trial here.
All results reflect Rithmm model performance from April 18 through June 1, 2026 (NBA Playoffs, First Round through Conference Finals). Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please bet responsibly.
