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Sun vs Aces: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models

June 21, 2024

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The league-leading Suns head to Vegas for a showdown with the Aces. Read about how I used Rithmm to build a custom sports betting model to arrive at my Suns vs Aces AI prediction.

Preview of Sun vs Aces AI Prediction

Connecticut travels to Las Vegas on Friday night. The Suns are a league-best 13-1, riding a four-game winning streak.

The Aces have had a rough go of it in the early season. Over their last six games they are 2-4 but coming off a 94-83 victory over the Storm on Wednesday night in Las Vegas.

Both teams are extremely well-coached and can be explosive on the offensive side of the ball.

Connecticut Sun Preview

The Suns last played on Tuesday the 18th, defeating the Sparks 79-70 in the nutmeg state.  Dewanna Bonner paced the Suns with 16 points and 7 rebounds. Bonner set her career high in points last year against the Aces, dropping 41 points on June 8, 2023.

Bonner a five-time all-star is having another great year. She is averaging 17.5 points a game, 2.5 points better than her career average. But Bonner is one half of a dynamic duo.

Bonner’s teammate, and fiance, Alyssa Thomas was named the Eastern Conference Player of the Month for May. Thomas averaged 14 points, 9 rebounds, and 8 assists for the month. She was also named to the USA Women’s Olympic basketball roster. Talk about a great month for Thomas.

The Suns' defensive effort has been their calling card, allowing a league-best 70 points a game. But the offense has started to click.  The Suns are averaging 84 points a game over their last four contests. That is four points higher than their season average.

Connecticut’s biggest offensive strength is its balanced scoring attack. They have a total of five players averaging double-digit points. In addition to Thomas and Bonner, Brionna Jones (13.4 PPG), DiJonai Carrington (12.6 PPG), and Tyasha Harris (11.1 PPG).  

This data plays a key role in my Sun vs Aces AI prediction.

Las Vegas Aces Preview

Las Vegas' attempt at a three-peat is off to a rocky start. In 2023 the Aces lost a total of six games and have already lost seven. One of the biggest changes has been the loss of Candace Parker to retirement. Parker only averaged nine points a game but was a floor-spacer and a true leader.

The other impact on the early season struggles was Chelsea Gray's absence. Gray was injured in game three of the WNBA finals last year but returned on Wednesday night against the Storm. Gray, aka point gawd, came off the bench and dished out seven assists in 16 minutes. Gray reached the milestone of 1,500 career assists in the first quarter.

The Aces are led by their MVP A’Ja Wilson. Wilson is off to another great start (27.9 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 2.6 APG), in her quest to capture her third championship and MVP award. Wilson is on a historic run, scoring twenty or more in 18 straight games.

Las Vegas is currently leading the league in scoring at 87 points a game. That is five points below last year’s average. With Gray back, watch out!

It will be interesting to see the number one offense and defense clash on Friday night.

Let's break down my Rithmm Sun vs Aces AI prediction for Friday.

How I Use Rithmm Models for my Sun vs Aces AI Prediction

I utilize the Rithmm AI model to make my WNBA Picks as a tool for my handicap. First I do my research. During my research, I found the following trends:

  • Over is 4-1 in Sun last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
  • Over is 6-2 in Sun last 8 games following a ATS loss.
  • Over is 4-1 in Aces last 5 overall.
  • Over is 4-1 in Aces last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
  • Over is 8-3-1 in Aces last 12 home games.
  • The over is 4-1 last five the Suns/Aces have played.

With the above trends, Suns' offense is clicking. With the Aces having Gray back, I'm leaning towards the over 162.5. Now let's look at my custom Rithmm AI models I used for my Sun vs Aces AI prediction.

Using Rithmm Models to Solidify My Sun vs Aces AI Prediction

Below you will see the models that I used to guide my Sun vs Aces AI prediction.

Let's break down this graphic. There are three models, one provided by Rithmm and two I customized. Rithmm users can customize up to a minimum of three models. Two models have the over 162.5  as a probable outcome and one has the under as a probable outcome.

After looking at the details, the model with the highest probability is over 162.5  at a 63.9 percent probability with a projected total score of 168! This model also has that beautiful green star. Green means that the probability is good to go! Check out Rithmm’s web page on how to make your own Sun vs Aces AI predictions.

My Sun vs Aces prediction

Let's finish this up! I’m going with the over 162.5. The trends point that way and so did the models. Good luck and remember always gamble responsibly.

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