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Sparks vs Dream: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models

June 16, 2024

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Tonight, the Los Angeles Sparks head out to Atlanta to take on the Dream in what promises to be an electric game. Read about how I used Rithmm to build a custom sports betting models to arrive at my Sparks vs Dream AI prediction.

Preview of Los Angeles Sparks vs Atlanta Dream AI Prediction

Tonight is the second meeting between Sparks and Dream after the Dream won their first game of the season 92-81. The Sparks are just 4-9 on the season after dropping their last 2 games. The Dream have been off and on all season long, especially after losing 4 of their last 5.

The Sparks are led by Dearica Hamby who averages 19.7 PPG to go along with 11.4 RPG. However, the Sparks have won just one game on the road all season which makes this matchup even tougher.

The Dream, led by Rhyne Howard, have been impressive with her strong scoring ability and solid defense. They are 2-4 at home and look to win against the Sparks.

Let's break down my Sparks vs Dream AI prediction for tonight.

How I Use Rithmm Models for my Sparks vs Dream AI Prediction

The way I utilize Rithmm for AI WNBA picks is as a tool for my handicap. First, I look at the numbers as stated above. The Sparks average 77.8 PPG this season and the Dream have averaged around 76.5 PPG this year. The line for the game is set at Sparks +5.5.

During my research to arrive at my Sparks vs Dream AI prediction, I discovered the following trends:

  • Sparks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.
  • Sparks are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
  • Dream are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
  • Dream are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference.
  • Dream are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Dream are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.
  • Dream are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.
  • Dream are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.
  • Sparks are 11-24 ATS in the last 35 meetings.
  • Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

With all the above trends plus how much the Sparks and Dream tend to score on offense, I'm leaning towards the Sparks +5.5 for my AI Pick.

Now, let's look at my Rithmm AI custom betting models

Below you will see my Rithmm model providing AI predictions for the Los Angeles Sparks vs Atlanta Dream: 

This model shows that the Sparks aren't just expected to win, but they are expected to win by over 9 points. With Rithmm, users can have Rithmm build a model or customize one based on preferences. Let's break down my model for my AI pick. This model is the Rithmm AI model that I built using a multitude of factors including:

  • Offense - This element measures a team's offensive capabilities using metrics like points scored, field goal percentage, and assists.
  • Defense - In this element, the AI uses metrics like steals, blocks, turnovers forced, and points allowed to measure a team's skill on defense or just their defensive rating overall.
  • Three-Pointers - Our 3 pointers element focuses on not just how often but how efficient a team shoots from beyond the arc.
  • Fouls - The model accounts for both personal fouls committed and drawn, which can impact the flow of the game and player availability.
  • Tempo - The tempo aspect is used to determine which teams have the most possessions within the 40 minute game.
Liberty vs Aces: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models

With the factors included in my model, the backtest tells me that my model will hit on the total points line 48% of the time. Ultimately, it means that your model is battle tested and can be helpful in finding the best edge for you.

Tonight, I’m going with the Sparks +5.5 (vs Dream) in tonight’s action. The trends point that way and my Rithmm model agrees with my AI pick. And remember always gamble responsibly. 

Make your own picks with your free Rithmm trial

If you like what you have read and want to give Rithmm a try, click to get started or download the App. 

👉 We've got a 7-day free trial going for you to explore all the app features (and perhaps make enough money winning bets to cover months of subscription!)

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