RBC Canadian Open 2024: Round 4 Best Bets & AI Caddie Picks
Table of Contents
Following an absolutely action-packed Round 3 on Moving Day of the 2024 RBC Canadian Open, the dust has settled: Robert MacIntyre, after playing his first nine holes in one over par, finished by going five under in his final five holes to open up a four-hole lead heading into Sunday's round.
After five holes, Ryan Fox was -14 himself, and everyone (including me) thought he was running away with this event. The golf gods had other plans though, and Fox finished back where he started at -10. He is tied with Mackenzie Hughes and Ben Griffin, and those final two groups should be action-packed tomorrow.
Following every round, we’ll be going through my favorite AI golf picks for the following round, as well as the Rithmm-backed AI Caddie hole score picks I’m rolling with. Let’s get into Round 4!
All Odds are found on DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted
RBC Canadian Open Round 4 AI Caddie Picks
Rory McIlroy to Birdie or Better Hole 6 (+750)
We're closing out the week with a BANGER for the Rithmm AI Caddie Pick of the Day. The sixth hole has played pretty hard this week so far, as most people would expect a 240-250 yard Par 3 to play under the best of conditions, let alone a PGA tournament with firm greens.
There's a couple reasons I'm targeting this longshot this time, though. First of all, I took a look at the Round 4 pin locations, which you can locate right here. The first three rounds have all featured a pin location in the backish-left of this large, two-level green that runs all the way steeply uphill from front to back. That has resulted in plenty of players taking the conservative route to the front-right portion of the green and leaving themselves a 70-foot two putt chance.
Looking at tomorrow's pin, though, has us seeing a crazy thing: the pin is in the front right of the green! Nine paces on and four paces off of the right, players can attack the front of this green as it's a level surface with little guarding the green in front. There's a collection area to the right sloping off of the green, but I expect players to take advantage here.
McIlroy has missed this green in Round 3, but found the green the other two days and even took it directly over where the flag will be in Round 4 back in Round 1. He has parred this hole all three days but starting the day seven shots back will necessitate him firing at pins. Expect Rory, who has a 23% chance to birdie this hole compared to the field getting 17%, to be aggressive.
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RBC Canadian Open Round 4 Bet
Matchup Play: Matt Wallace > Samuel Stevens (-130)
We're laying the juice with Wallace here.
First off, make a stop in with Rithmm's model. Our model that we built can be found in my RBC Canadian Open Course Preview article, and it has Wallace sitting at 20, while Stevens sits at 28. Our data-backed projections also say that Wallace has a 38.3% chance to finish in the top 20 this week, while Stevens sits at 27.1%.
Looking at some more data, Stevens sits 135th in Round 4 Scoring Average. He has only carded two sub-70 final rounds in 11 complete tournaments this year, while Wallace sits 66th in the same stat category and has been able to grind out four sub-70 rounds in eight complete events.
Wallace has played much better than Stevens this tournament, almost across the board. He's substantially out-performed Stevens in the two most important categories, Approach and Tee to Green, and which Wallace's scrambling has been poor, he gained nearly two strokes around the greens in Round 3 and it is his best part of his game. When Wallace is able to fire at pins, watch out, he can get hot.
Closing Remarks on RBC Canadian Open Round 4 Best Bets
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Useful Resources for betting on the RBC Canadian Open 2024
Learn more about the tournament by exploring:
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