Liberty vs Aces: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models - Game 3

The New York Liberty and the Las Vegas Aces WNBA Semifinal series moves to Las Vegas where the Aces look to defend their home court.

Preview of my Liberty vs. Aces Prediction

This series is the highest profile of the playoffs so far with the reigning champions Aces looking for their third straight title against the Liberty, who ended the season with the best record in the league. With the Liberty taking a commanding 2-0 lead in the best of five series, the Aces will have to pull out all of the stops in order to keep their three-peat deans alive. Let’s take a look at the Liberty vs Aces AI Predictions for what the models say are the best bets of this Friday night, prime time showcase. 

New York Liberty Preview

The New York Liberty ended the season with the best record in the league (32-8) and the title as the favorite to win the championship. 

They were a dominant team overall, but they were led by superstars Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu. Stewart averaged 20.4 points per game and 8.5 rebounds per game while Ionescu added 18.2 points per game, 6.2 assists per game, and 4.4 rebounds per game. 

As a team, the Liberty averaged 85.6 points per game which was good for second in the league. They were, also, second in assists and rebounds per game, first in three pointers attempted, fifth in three-point percentage, and first in two-point percentage. 

On advanced statistics, they were even more impressive finishing the season ranking first in offensive rating and ranking third in defensive rating.

For the season, despite the Liberty going 32-8, they were 20-20 against the spread and have hit 18 overs and 22 unders. In the playoffs, they are 2-2-1 against the spread. 

Las Vegas Aces Preview

The Las Vegas Aces have been on the quest to winning three championships in a row. They would be the first team since the Houston Comets accomplished the three-peat from 1997-1999. They ended the year 27-13, fourth in the league, as they continue vying for the title. 

The Aces are led by the 2024 WNBA regular season MVP, A’ja Wilson who was voted unanimously. She ended the season averaging 26.9 points and 11.9 rebounds per game. They are also headed by Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young who averaged 17.8 and 15.8 points per game respectively. 

The Liberty were the second ranked team by points, well the Aces were the one team better. They ended the season ranked first in team points per game with 86.4, third in two-point percentage, fourth in three-point percentage, second in blocks and first in defensive rebounds and turnovers. 

The Aces fall right behind the Liberty in offensive rating, coming in at second best in the league, and they are ranked fifth in defensive ranking. 

On the season, the Aces are just 18-20-1 against the spread  despite their 27-13 actual record. They hit the over 16 times and the under 23. In the playoffs, they are 1-2-1 against the spread. 

How I Use Rithmm Models for Liberty vs Aces AI Prediction

The New York Liberty have taken care of business in this WNBA Semifinal match up. They won Game 1 87-77 and Game 2 88-84. The Aces haven’t had much of an answer for Liberty starts Stewart and Ionescu. 

The spread on this game is Aces -2.5 and over under of 165.5. 

It was surprising to me to see the Aces favored in this one before looking into the spread because of the results of the first two games in this series. It feels like the Liberty, being the best team in the league, shouldn’t be underdogs in this series, especially with the Aces at the tail end of a three long seasons. 

With my initial thoughts and research done, let’s turn to the Rithmm app and see if the models that have been created confirm my theories for my WNBA AI prediction.

Let's take a look at the Rithmm AI custom betting models that I personally created with the Rithmm app.  

The first model, “Rithmm AI”, which looks at all categories equally but leaving tempo out, have the Liberty vs Aces AI prediction as Liberty -4.3. This is a huge advantage on the given spread being a 6.8 point difference. 

The “All Offensive” model that I had customized that puts heavy emphasis on all offensive categories, have the Liberty vs Aces AI prediction as Liberty -5.2. Also, another big advantage against the given spread. This one is even bigger and comes in at a 7.7 point edge. 

Lastly, the “Defensive/Tempo” model that I customized featuring tempo, three pointers , and defense, have the Liberty vs Aces AI prediction as Liberty -4.1 which, again, shows a big edge on the given spread of 6.6 points. 

My Liberty vs Aces AI Prediction

With my own research done and with all three of the models showcasing a significant edge on the given spread, I am inclined to stick with my first thought. Both of this teams have great offenses, but I am looking at the Liberty defense and them looking to close this series out as soon as possible. With all of that being said, I’m taking the LIBERTY +2.5 in the Liberty vs Aces match up.

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