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Liberty vs Aces: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models

June 15, 2024

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Tonight, the New York Liberty head out to Las Vegas to take on the Aces in what promises to be an electric game. Read about how I used Rithmm to build a custom sports betting models to arrive at my Liberty vs Aces AI prediction.

Preview of New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces AI Prediction

Tonight is the first meeting between Liberty and Aces. The Aces are just 6-5 on the season after winning in Phoenix, ending a 3 game losing streak. The Liberty have been strong all season long with a record of 11-2. They are on a 7 game winning streak.

The Liberty are led by super star Breanna Stewart and 3 point specialist Sabrina Ionescu. They are 2nd in the entire WNBA when it comes to difference, beating teams by an average of 9.9 points.

The Aces, led by A'ja Wilson who has been a key piece for the team on offense with her 28.6 PPG with over 11.7 RPG. They have a 1-3 record in their last 4 games as the Aces are trying to turn around what's been a cold month.

Let's break down my Liberty vs Aces AI prediction for tonight.

How I Use Rithmm Models for my Liberty vs Aces AI Prediction

The way I utilize Rithmm for AI WNBA picks is as a tool for my handicap. First, I look at the numbers as stated above. The Liberty average 85.8 PPG this season and the Aces have averaged around 87.3 PPG this year. The over/under for tonight's game is set at 172.5.

During my research to arrive at my Liberty vs Aces AI prediction, I discovered the following trends:

  • Under is 5-0 in Liberty last 5 vs. Western Conference.
  • Under is 4-1 in Liberty last 5 road games.
  • Under is 9-3 in Liberty last 12 Saturday games.
  • Over is 5-2 in Liberty last 7 games following a straight up win.
  • Over is 11-5 in Liberty last 16 games following a ATS loss.
  • Over is 7-0 in Aces last 7 games following a ATS loss.
  • Over is 4-1 in Aces last 5 overall.
  • Over is 4-1 in Aces last 5 home games.
  • Over is 6-2 in Aces last 8 Saturday games.
  • Over is 6-2-1 in Aces last 9 games playing on 1 days rest.

With all the above trends plus how much the Liberty and Aces tend to score on offense, I'm leaning towards the over for my AI Pick.

Now, let's look at my Rithmm AI custom betting models

Below you will see my Rithmm model providing AI predictions for the New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces: 

Liberty vs Aces: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models

This model shows that both teams are predicted to combine for over 173 points. With Rithmm, users can have Rithmm build a model or customize one based on preferences. Let's break down my model for my AI pick. This model is the Rithmm AI model that I built using a multitude of factors including:

  • Offense - This element measures a team's offensive capabilities using metrics like points scored, field goal percentage, and assists.
  • Defense - In this element, the AI uses metrics like steals, blocks, turnovers forced, and points allowed to measure a team's skill on defense or just their defensive rating overall.
  • Three-Pointers - Our 3 pointers element focuses on not just how often but how efficient a team shoots from beyond the arc.
  • Fouls - The model accounts for both personal fouls committed and drawn, which can impact the flow of the game and player availability.
  • Tempo - The tempo aspect is used to determine which teams have the most possessions within the 40 minute game.
Liberty vs Aces: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models

With the factors included in my model, the backtest tells me that my model will hit on the total points line 55.4% of the time with an ROI of 5.63%. Ultimately, it means that your model is battle tested and can be helpful in finding the best edge for you.

Tonight, I’m going with the over (172.5) in tonight’s action. The trends point that way and my Rithmm model agrees with my AI pick. And remember always gamble responsibly. 

Make your own picks with your free Rithmm trial

If you like what you have read and want to give Rithmm a try, click to get started or download the App. 

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