The Knicks are one win away from their first championship in 53 years, and while the city is buzzing after that Game 4 comeback, the Rithmm models are quietly flagging something on the perimeter heading into Game 5. Landry Shamet's three-point prop is showing up as a pick, and the historical data behind it is worth paying attention to.
The pattern the models are detecting is one of the strongest on the slate. Across all NBA predictions where a shooting guard's three-point prop falls at this line, the UNDER has connected at a 65.8% rate over 79 tracked bets, producing a return of nearly 30 units on the season. That is not a small sample or a recent blip. It is a signal that has held consistently across the full 2025-26 season.
Shamet fits this profile precisely. He has been a rotational piece for New York throughout the Finals run, logging inconsistent minutes depending on matchup and game flow. The Rithmm models predict he lands at 1.0 made threes in Game 5, a full half-step below the 1.5 line. At -104 juice, that is a line with real value attached.
The broader shooting guard data reinforces what the models are seeing. When looking at all SG three-point props this season regardless of line, the UNDER has covered at a 59.2% rate across nearly 400 bets. Narrow that to coin-flip spots like this one and the number climbs to 59.7% across 159 bets. The convergence across multiple data cuts is what separates this pick from a standard underline.
Shamet is not the kind of player who takes over a game with his shot. He lives on catch-and-shoot opportunities off movement, and his role tends to shrink in tight Finals moments when New York needs its primary scorers to carry the load. With the Knicks one win from a title, expect Brunson and the core to dominate the ball, leaving even less room for Shamet to get into a rhythm from three.
The Rithmm models are giving this one an Elite Edge tag, meaning it cleared the threshold for strong historical signal alongside a positive DTM reading. For a prop sitting at a low line with deep pattern backing, that combination is exactly what you want to see.
The pick is Landry Shamet Under 1.5 3Pts at -104.
