Desmond Bane Under 3.5 Assists Prediction - Oct 25, 2026

The Orlando Magic travel to Madison Square Garden to face the New York Knicks on Sunday evening, and the models are zeroing in on Desmond Bane's assist total. Early season market lines often carry forward prior team roles before adjusting to new roster usage and distribution patterns. In Orlando's system, Bane's primary offensive responsibility remains perimeter scoring rather than primary initiation.

The models project Desmond Bane to finish with 3.3 assists against New York, creating substantial value on Under 3.5 assists at -108 odds. That projection translates to an estimated 59 percent win probability and gives bettors a 14.7 percent Edge over the available line. Through his first two games this season, Bane has averaged just 1.0 assist per contest, staying comfortably under the 3.5 threshold in both outings.

Matchup dynamics reinforce the model projection. New York's defensive structure under Tom Thibodeau is designed to clog interior passing lanes and force opponents into contested isolation jumpers. The Knicks allow 26.5 assists per game while controlling the defensive glass, ranking seventh in rebounding at 41.0 boards per contest. With fewer transition opportunities and limited drive-and-kick sequences available, high-volume secondary assist opportunities are difficult to generate at the Garden.

Lines move quickly throughout the afternoon leading up to tip-off. Check your sportsbook or trading site to confirm the latest numbers and secure the best price available on the board.

For more daily projections, line shopping, and model analysis across tonight's NBA slate, visit Rithmm for AI sports picks and check the latest props at AI NBA picks. Bettors looking to dig deeper into matchups can consult Scout for qualitative breakdowns or utilize Prop Explorer to compare lines across major books. Test the full platform with a 7-day free trial on Pro or lock in Core for $29.99 a month to access model-backed predictions in seconds.