Brandon Pfaadt is being recalled from Triple-A Reno to start tonight's game against the San Francisco Giants, and Rithmm's models are flagging his hits allowed prop as one of the better spots on tonight's slate.
The pick is Pfaadt Under 4.5 Hits Allowed at +103. The models are projecting 4.4 hits allowed, putting him right at the line, with the plus-money odds adding value to a lean the models already like.
What makes this worth noting is what the data has been doing all month. Across every pitcher hits allowed under the models have evaluated in June, the results have gone 17-10, a win rate of 63 percent and an ROI of plus 28.8 percent over 27 predictions. June has been a strong month for this type of prop, and Pfaadt's number tonight fits squarely in that window.
On the individual side, Pfaadt has stayed under 4.5 hits allowed in each of his last 10 starts. That stretch includes time in Triple-A after he was optioned down on June 4, but it is the number Rithmm is tracking and it has been consistent. He is working off a 5.92 ERA in limited big-league action this season, but the hits allowed line has kept clean across that entire run.
The Giants come in as the opponent, and Arizona has already won game one of this series. Tonight's line gives you plus money on a pitcher the models are projecting to land right at the number, with a strong recent track record backing the lean.
The pick is Under 4.5 Hits Allowed for Brandon Pfaadt at +103. You can find this bet on the Rithmm app alongside the full slate of model predictions for tonight.
