Benjamin Rice Under 0.5 Runs Scored: MLB AI Pick for Yankees vs. Red Sox

Benjamin Rice Under 0.5 Runs Scored: Yankees vs. Red Sox

Ben Rice and the Yankees take on the Red Sox tonight at 7:00 PM, and the Rithmm models like the Under 0.5 Runs Scored at -138. The bet comes down to one question: does he cross the plate at all? The models lean toward no, and the recommended badge in the app marks it as one of the props they favor on tonight's board.

What the models are seeing

Rithmm's models project Rice for 0.34 runs scored tonight. The line sits at 0.5, so the models expect a night well below the number he needs to clear. They give the Under a 59.4% win chance against 41% for the Over, which produces a +3.3% Edge at the -138 price. That is a solid, honest number for a prop that does not need a big swing to be worth a look.

Runs scored is one of the most underrated markets on the board. A hitter can reach base twice and still finish with zero, because scoring depends on the bats behind him as much as on his own at-bats. The models account for that by weighing how often a hitter in his lineup spot actually comes around to score in a matchup like this one, instead of treating a walk or a single as a run in the making.

The track record when the models land here

The models' Under calls on runs scored with a projection between 0.30 and 0.35 have gone 28-16 this season, a 63.6% win rate and a +12.9% ROI across 44 bets. Rice's 0.34 projection sits inside that band. The sample is small, so treat it as a useful signal and not a guarantee. It does show the models have handled this kind of spot well.

How to approach it

The -138 price means you are paying for the likelihood, so this works best as a single play sized with that in mind. It does not need a parlay leg to justify itself. If you like the read, check the price at a few sportsbooks before you bet, since a small difference in the number changes the value.

Inside Rithmm you can open the full Bet Info for this prop and see the model projection, the model win chance against the book's, and the Edge side by side. Scout, your AI betting analyst on Pro and Premium, can walk you through why the models land on the Under in plain English. Browse more MLB player props from the Rithmm models or see today's full AI sports picks board. Every new account gets a 7-day free trial, which requires a credit card.

Bet responsibly. Sports betting involves risk, and no pick is guaranteed.