Why We Are Excited About Polymarket and Why Rithmm Is Built for Prediction Markets

Prediction markets officially took a big step forward this week with Polymarket becoming available in the United States.

And for us, the timing could not be better.

My very first Polymarket contract just settled as a winner. A Wizards moneyline contract closed at plus odds, turning a small position into a meaningful return. That win was not random. It was driven by the same predictive modeling logic we use every day at Rithmm.

This moment highlights something important. Prediction markets are no longer theoretical. They are live, liquid, and increasingly accessible. And the skills required to succeed in them look a lot like the skills required to bet sports intelligently.

What makes prediction markets different

Prediction markets like Polymarket allow users to trade contracts based on real world outcomes. Instead of placing a traditional bet, you are buying shares in an outcome at a given price.

If you believe the true probability of an event is higher than the market price implies, you buy the contract. If the outcome happens, the contract settles at full value.

At their core, prediction markets are probability markets. Every price represents an implied chance of something happening.

That should sound familiar.

Why predictive modeling matters even more in prediction markets

In my winning Polymarket contract, the Wizards moneyline was priced at plus 237. That price implied roughly a thirty three percent chance of winning.

Rithmm’s model saw it differently.

The model projected a much closer game, giving the Wizards a materially higher chance to win than the market price suggested. That difference between the implied probability and the model’s projection is where the opportunity existed.

This is exactly how predictive modeling works. You are not predicting certainty. You are identifying when the market is underestimating an outcome.

Prediction markets reward this approach even more directly than traditional sportsbooks.

Why Rithmm is built for prediction markets

Rithmm was built around predictive modeling from day one. Our models estimate probabilities, not opinions. They constantly update as new data comes in. They are designed to compare projected outcomes against market prices.

That is the same framework required to succeed in prediction markets.

Whether you are looking at sports outcomes, election markets, or other event based contracts, the process is identical. Estimate the true probability. Compare it to the market price. Act when there is a meaningful gap.

This is why Rithmm fits naturally into prediction markets like Polymarket, Kalshi, and even platforms expanding access through brokerage style experiences like Robinhood.

The interface may look different, but the math underneath is the same.

From sports betting to prediction markets

Sports bettors who already think in terms of probability, pricing, and value have a massive advantage when entering prediction markets.

Instead of asking who will win, the question becomes whether the price accurately reflects the chance of winning.

Rithmm helps answer that question.

Our Smart Signals surface situations where the model disagrees with the market. Our projections show expected outcomes and confidence levels. Our tools help users act quickly when prices move.

Those same capabilities translate seamlessly to prediction markets.

Why this matters right now

Prediction markets are expanding quickly. Access is improving. Liquidity is growing. More users are discovering them every week.

As this space grows, it will reward disciplined, probability driven decision making rather than speculation.

That is why we are excited about Polymarket becoming available in the US. And that is why we believe Rithmm is positioned perfectly for this shift.

We did not build Rithmm for one sport, one season, or one platform. We built it to help people make smarter decisions in markets driven by probability.

Whether you are betting NBA or NFL games, trading prediction market contracts, or exploring new platforms like Kalshi and Robinhood, the core skill is the same.

Understand probability. Compare it to price. Act when there is an edge.

That is what Rithmm is built to do.

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