AI Sports Betting Picks: Bears vs Bengals Under 51 Prediction (Nov 2)

Sunday’s NFL slate features a matchup where both Rithmm’s AI high ROI totals models are in agreement — and when that happens, it’s worth paying attention.Rithmm’s data shows clear value on Under 51.0 total points in the Bears vs Bengals matchup.  With two models confirming the same edge and both showing profitable returns this season, the math and the matchup point the same direction: expect a tighter, lower-scoring game in Cincinnati.
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Rithmm Model Insight
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The primary My NFL Model projects 47.2 total points, giving the under a 60.4% win probability and a +15.3% Distance to Market (DTM) — one of the strongest edges on the board this week.  Both of Rithmm’s totals models agree:

- My NFL Model: +19% ROI on totals this season  

- Totals Model 2: +4.3% ROI on totals this season  

When multiple independent models converge on the same result, that consensus adds statistical confidence to the pick.  With market odds at -110, the projection suggests roughly 3.2% expected ROI versus current pricing.

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Context and Trends Supporting the Under
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- Defensive Turnovers: The Bears lead the league with 16 takeaways and a +10 turnover margin — shortening opposing drives and limiting scoring opportunities.  

- Bengals’ Offensive Inefficiency: Cincinnati ranks 29th in total offense (284.9 yards per game) and near the bottom in pace. Sustaining drives has been a problem all season.  

- Run-Heavy Tendencies: Both teams rely on the ground game to stabilize possessions, which bleeds clock and keeps totals lower.  

- Injury & Weather Notes: The Bengals’ offensive line remains banged up, while early reports show mild Cincinnati weather — ideal for defense-heavy play.  

- Historical Pace: Each of the last three meetings between these teams finished under 51 total points.The combination of slow tempo, limited explosive plays, and strong turnover potential aligns perfectly with the AI model’s 47-point projection.

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Predicted Total

> Rithmm Projection: 47.2 Total Points  

> Market Line: 51.0 Points  

> Model Edge: +15.3% DTM (favorable Under)

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Why AI Models Excel on Totals

Traditional handicappers often lean on narrative.  Rithmm’s AI models instead evaluate:

- Historical scoring distributions  

- Drive-level efficiency  

- Play-by-play tempo data  

- Market-line efficiency shifts  

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By combining thousands of simulations, the models uncover consistent value on totals where the market lags behind data trends.

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Track and Build Your Own Model

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Rithmm lets you create your own predictive models, backtest up to three seasons, and track ROI in real time.  See which edges your model finds on today’s games — and follow every result live. Try Rithmm free for seven days using code TRYCORE25.