It’s Thursday Night Football — the busiest betting night of the week — and if you’re like most bettors, you want one thing:

A confident pick you can lock in fast.

No noise. No endless scrolling. No hesitation.

That’s exactly where Rithmm shines.

Tonight, our NFL predictive model is giving a green-star recommendation on the Under 54.* in Cowboys at Lions — and the numbers behind it all align.

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Why This Play Made Rithmm’s Recommended List

Rithmm only gives a green-star recommendation when the prediction + the price + the matchup conditions create a strong value opportunity.

For Cowboys–Lions, the model projects:

- 49.4 Total Points (Predicted)
- Under 54.5 (-113)
- 67.2% Win Chance
- 26.6% DTM (Distance to Market)

A 26.6% DTM signals the line is priced significantly higher than where the model believes the true total should be.

In other words:

The book is offering a number that’s too high.

And Rithmm is flagging that opportunity in real time.

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Your NFL Totals Model Is Crushing This Season

This pick isn’t a one-off. Your totals model has been one of Rithmm’s most consistent performers.

Current record on NFL totals:

- 21–12 (63.6%)
- 21.0% ROI
- High accuracy specifically in games where both teams have explosive offenses — exactly like tonight.

This is the perfect example of how predictive modeling can find value even when the matchup looks scary to the public.

Most bettors see Cowboys vs Lions and think “shootout.”

Rithmm sees:

- Pace  
- Drive efficiency  
- Red-zone regression  
- Defensive matchups  
- Weather  
- Line inflation  

…and it surfaces a different answer.

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The Bigger Pain Point Rithmm Solves

If you bet NFL regularly, you’ve definitely felt this:

“I want a fast, repeatable process for finding bets I can trust.”

Not 20 tabs.  
Not hours of research.  
Not chasing steam and missing numbers.

Rithmm solves this by giving you:

- Instant predictions  
- A clear win chance  
- A model vs sportsbook comparison  
- A green-star that signals when the value is there right now  
- And if the value disappears later?  
The app automatically adjusts — the star turns to caution.

Nothing is “wrong” — it’s just telling you:  
The edge is gone. Don’t force it.

That’s the transparency bettors actually want.

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Tonight’s TNF Pick: Cowboys @ Lions  

Recommended Play:
Under 54.5 (-113)

Why:
- Model predicts 49.4 total points
- 67.2% win probability
- 26.6% DTM  
- Supported by a 21–12 season record on totals  

When prediction + price + performance line up — you follow the math.

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Final Word: If You Want Faster, Smarter NFL Decisions…

Thursday is always chaotic for bettors.

But the right pick is the one where your model + the market + the matchup all agree — and tonight, they do.

Under 54.5 is the play.

Open the Rithmm app, grab the edge, and enjoy TNF with confidence.

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