There is a signal the Rithmm models have been tracking quietly in the WNBA assists market, and tonight it lines up with one of the most-watched players in the league.
Across 25 qualifying bets this season, the assists under in the WNBA has gone 18-6 with a 75% win rate and a 35.06% ROI. That is not a small sample fluke. That is the kind of sustained signal that gets the models paying attention, and it is pointing squarely at tonight's slate.
Paige Bueckers and the Dallas Wings take on the Las Vegas Aces tonight at 8:00 PM ET. The assists line is set at 5.5, and the Rithmm models are projecting 5.1 assists for Bueckers in this matchup. That projection puts this pick inside the value window with a DTM of 3.4% and a 58% win chance according to the models.
The Aces defense is one of the most disciplined units in the WNBA. They have consistently ranked among the league's best at limiting opposing playmakers, shrinking the creation windows that high-assist guards rely on. A game against Las Vegas naturally compresses the environment for big assist nights, which is exactly why the models are flagging value on the under here.
Bueckers has also gone under this line in 4 of her last 7 games, so recent trends align with what the historical pattern is showing.
At -130, this is not a slam dunk on price, but the combination of a strong historical assists under pattern, a model projection sitting below the line, and a matchup against one of the toughest defenses in the league gives this pick real backing. The models are not reaching for this one. The signal is there, and the setup fits.
Check the full Rithmm pick on the app before tip-off and see how tonight's full WNBA slate stacks up. Download Rithmm and let the models do the work.
