It’s NFL Sunday — the biggest betting day of the week — and Rithmm’s predictive model has identified a clear edge in the Panthers–Falcons matchup.  

Today’s featured play: Chuba Hubbard Over 0.5 Receptions.

‍

Rithmm’s NFL Performance This Season

NFL Smart Signals and prop models continue to perform at a top-tier level:

- NFL Smart Signals 264–195 (+38.39 units)  
- NFL Smart Signals — Receptions: 106–68 (+21.77 units)  
- NFL Smart Signal Unders: 187–131 (59%) +34.71 units  
- NFL Prop Unders Overall: +56.37 units  

Today’s pick fits directly into one of our strongest categories: reception Smart Signals with a high win probability.

‍

Featured NFL Model Edge  
Chuba Hubbard — Over 0.5 Receptions (–143)

- Model Projection: 1.9 receptions  
- Win Probability: 79.9%  
- DTM: +51.2%  
- Kickoff: Panthers @ Falcons  

This is one of the strongest single-prop edges on today’s board.  
When Rithmm’s model shows a 79.9% win chance with a 51% DTM, it means the price is significantly misaligned relative to true probability.

‍

Why the Model Likes the Over

1. Massive DTM Edge (+51.2%)
The model strongly disagrees with the market on this number.  
A DTM this high indicates a consistently profitable long-term spot.

2. Smart Signal Confirmation
This play matches a high-performing Smart Signal:
- 60% hit rate
- 315 sample size  
- 189–126 record  
- 6.84% ROI
- Triggered when: Receptions + Win Chance 70–80%

Smart Signals identify thresholds where your model has historically been most accurate — and this one fits perfectly.

3. Hubbard’s Trends Support the Over
Over his last 10 games:
- 2.0 average receptions
- 75% hit rate on reception overs
- Multiple 2–5 catch games against similar coverage schemes  

Short checkdowns, pressure looks, and scripted RB touches all point toward 1+ receptions today.

4. Opponent-Adjusted Inputs
The model accounts for:
- Falcons LB coverage efficiency  
- Carolina’s expected negative game script  
- QB checkdown rates under pressure  
- Target distribution by formation  

All of these lean toward at least one catch for Hubbard.

‍

Track All NFL Sunday Edges in Rithmm

Every model projection, Smart Signal, and player prop value for today’s full NFL slate is live now in the app.  
Don’t miss the strongest edges before kickoff.

See Today’s NFL Smart Signals in Rithmm!

‍

‍