We hit our D’Andre Swift prop earlier today, and now attention turns to tonight’s NFL matchup — Dolphins vs Steelers — and one of the most popular bet types on the board: Anytime Touchdowns.

One of the most searched props tonight is De’Von Achane anytime TD. And this is a perfect example of why having a predictive model matters.

Here’s what Rithmm is showing.

Rithmm’s prop model projects Achane for 0.68 touchdowns tonight. That translates to a 43.3% chance of scoring. At the current price of -120, the sportsbook is implying a higher probability than the model sees — which is why Rithmm cautions this bet at this number.

The DTM on this prop comes in at -21.9%, signaling that while Achane is certainly capable of scoring, the price doesn’t offer enough value to treat this as a strong play.

This is important context, especially for Anytime TD markets.

Achane has scored frequently this season, and recent trends show a 70% hit rate over his last 10 games. That’s exactly why this bet is so popular — and exactly why sportsbooks shade the price aggressively.

Why Price Matters More Than Popularity

Rithmm doesn’t ignore trends, but it doesn’t stop there either. It asks a more important question: does the price still make sense?

In this case, the model is leaning toward Achane scoring, but not strongly enough at -120 to justify a full recommendation. That’s a meaningful distinction.

This is where personal strategy comes in.

Some users may choose to pass. Others may wait for a better number. And some — myself included — may still choose to play it, understanding that it’s a lean, not a model-backed edge.

That’s the difference between betting blindly and betting informed.

Making Smarter Decisions Across Every Market

Rithmm isn’t here to tell you what you must bet. It’s here to show you when the numbers support a play — and when they don’t.

Whether it’s NFL player props, NBA props, College Basketball spreads, or full-game predictions, Rithmm gives you the clarity to make smarter decisions in every market.

If you’re betting tonight’s NFL game, see how the models are evaluating every prop and matchup.

Start your 7-day free trial of Rithmm and get access to NFL, NBA, and CBB predictions today.

‍