Finding consistent edges in NBA player props isn’t about guessing or narratives. It’s about probability, historical context, and predictive modeling. That’s exactly why today’s featured prop stands out.

Featured NBA Prop Pick

Neemias Queta under 1.5 blocks (-186) vs Dallas Mavericks on February 3rd at 7:00 PM ET.

Why the Model Likes This Pick

Rithmm’s NBA player prop model projects Neemias Queta at 1.1 blocks tonight, which sits comfortably below the posted line of 1.5. This recommendation is driven by both recent performance and a larger trend sample, not a single-game outcome.

Key indicators supporting the under include a 66.8% projected win probability, the under hitting in 9 of his last 10 games, a 90% under hit rate over that span, and an average of 1.4 blocks during the same window. The model flags this as a sharp under, meaning the numbers align strongly in one direction.

Understanding the Matchup Context

Blocks are one of the most volatile defensive stats in the NBA. They are highly dependent on minutes, matchup shot selection, and defensive role. Against Dallas, opportunities for high block totals are limited, and that context is fully baked into the model’s projection.

While there is a single outlier performance in the recent sample, broader trend windows help smooth out that noise. When viewed in full context, the under remains the statistically favored outcome.

Why Timing Matters for NBA Player Props

Defensive player props often move quickly, especially when early money comes in. Checking lines early and comparing across sportsbooks can make a meaningful difference, particularly on props with higher juice like this one.

Final Take

If you’re searching for NBA player props today, Neemias Queta under 1.5 blocks is a strong example of predictive modeling and recent trends aligning in a clear direction.

There are additional NBA player props live in the Rithmm app right now, including more unders and parlay-friendly opportunities, all powered by the same modeling approach.

Explore today’s NBA player props with Rithmm and start a 7-day free trial to see the full slate for yourself.

‍