NBA Finals Game 1 is here. The New York Knicks travel to San Antonio tonight for the first game of a series that has basketball fans across the country locked in, and Rithmm's models have run the numbers on how this opener plays out.
The models are backing San Antonio to take Game 1 at home. Rithmm projects a final score of 112.6 to 106.7 in favor of the Spurs, which translates to a 65.4% win probability on tonight's contest. The Difference to Market on this line is positive, meaning the models see genuine value in the Spurs relative to where the books have them priced.
The Spurs are playing their first Finals game since 2014, with Wembanyama leading a team that dispatched the Thunder in a Game 7 to get here. The Knicks swept Cleveland in the East and arrive sharp, but San Antonio's home-court advantage is a real factor, and the models are accounting for it.
At -188, this is not a long-shot value bet. The argument is straightforward: the models believe a Spurs win is more probable tonight than the current odds reflect.
Rithmm's models project Towns to finish with 13.6 combined rebounds and assists, sitting well below the 15.5 market line. This specific prop type and line combination has produced a consistent lean to the under across similar situations throughout the 2026 season, and the models are pointing in the same direction here.
Shamet's three-point volume is the third Rithmm pick for tonight's opener. The models project 1.0 threes for Shamet, and shooting guards in this exact prop situation have shown one of the more reliable patterns on the board this season. The under at -125 carries a 57.7% win probability per the models.
These are Rithmm's top picks for tonight's NBA Finals Game 1 between the Knicks and Spurs. Every pick inside the app comes with the model's full projected score, win probability, and DTM so you can see exactly what the data is seeing before tip-off. Download the app to follow the full slate tonight.
