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Mystics vs Lynx: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models

July 6, 2024

Table of Contents

The Minnesota Lynx have established themselves as a formidable team in the WNBA this season, boasting a 14-6 record, which places them at the top of the Western Conference. However, recent performances have shown some vulnerabilities in their otherwise strong campaign.

The Lynx have lost three of their last four games, including consecutive defeats to the challenging Connecticut Sun and New York Liberty, and an unexpected loss to the Dallas Wings, who are at the bottom of the Western standings.

In their latest clash against the Sun, the Lynx's offensive efforts were led by Alanna Smith, who scored 14 points and grabbed 4 rebounds, and Kayla McBride, who added 13 points. Despite their contributions, it wasn't enough to secure a victory.

On the other hand, the Washington Mystics are facing a challenging season with a 5-16 record, placing them at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. However, recent games have shown some signs of improvement and resilience in the Mystics' camp. They have managed to split their last six games, posting a 3-3 record during this stretch.

This includes back-to-back victories over the Dallas Wings and a significant win against the Los Angeles Sparks. Despite this progress, the Mystics stumbled in their latest outing against the Las Vegas Aces. Shatori Walker-Kimbrough delivered with 19 points, while Ariel Atkins contributed 18 points and 3 rebounds. However, much like Minnesota, their efforts were overshadowed by the Aces' dominant performance.

Preview of my Mystics vs Lynx AI Prediction

The Washington Mystics and Minnesota Lynx meet Saturday in WNBA action at the Target Center. Our AI Sport Picks have you covered for this game and many more.

Washington Mystics Preview

On Thursday night, Kelsey Plum showcased her scoring prowess with an impressive 28 points, including six three-pointers, leading the Las Vegas Aces to their sixth consecutive victory with a dominant 98-77 win over the Washington Mystics, a game streamed on Amazon Prime.

A'ja Wilson, the league's leading scorer averaging 27.0 points per game, added 18 points and nine rebounds to the Aces' tally. Despite strong efforts from Washington, particularly Shatori Walker-Kimbrough's 19 points off the bench and Ariel Atkins' 18 points, the Mystics struggled to contain Las Vegas' offensive firepower.

Emily Engstler also contributed with 10 points and a team-high eight rebounds.

The Aces established control early, ending the first quarter with a 23-20 lead after a late surge, highlighted by Alysha Clark's scoring burst. Plum's three-point shooting ignited the second quarter, where she hit back-to-back triples during an 18-3 run, extending Las Vegas' lead to 43-29.

They maintained this momentum into halftime, leading 48-35. In the third quarter, Jackie Young's layup pushed the lead to 67-47, and Plum continued her hot streak with two more three-pointers, stretching the gap to 30 points.

This game marked the second meeting in three contests between these teams, with the Aces previously defeating the Mystics 88-77. Despite Washington's recent improvement, achieving a 5-4 record following an initial 12-game losing streak to start the season, they faced a tough road stretch, playing their second of four consecutive away games and now needing to travel to Minnesota.

This plays a key role in my Mystics vs Lynx AI prediction.

Minnesota Lynx Preview

The Washington Mystics are scoring an average of 79.2 points per game, ranking 10th in the league, while shooting 42.9% overall, placing them 9th. They are highly efficient from beyond the arc, shooting 37.0%, which ranks them 2nd in the league. Their free throw percentage is 77.3%, ranking 8th. Ariel Atkins leads the team in scoring, averaging 14.5 points per game. However, the next four top scorers—Shakira Austin, Brittney Sykes, Stefanie Dolson, and Karlie Samuelson—are all out due to injuries. Julie Vanloo leads in assists, averaging 5.2 per game.

Defensively, the Mystics allow an average of 83.5 points per game, ranking 8th, with opponents shooting 45.4% overall (10th) and 34.7% from three-point range (7th). Washington averages 7.0 offensive rebounds and 24.8 defensive rebounds per game, totaling 31.8 boards per contest, led by Aaliyah Edwards with an average of 6.2 rebounds per game. Atkins leads in steals, averaging 1.5 per game, while Edwards is the primary shot blocker, averaging 1.0 blocks per game.

How I Use Rithmm Models for Mystics vs Lynx AI Prediction

With Rithmm’s AI sports betting model you are able to dive deep into just about any trend you can think of, below is just a snap shot of what I pulled for todays game.

Against the Spread (ATS) Performance:

  • The Lynx are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread (ATS) and have performed well against the Mystics historically.
  • The Mystics are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games against the Fever, but their overall recent form has been inconsistent.

Head-to-Head:

  • The Lynx have been dominant against the Mystics, including a recent victory earlier this season.
  • The Mystics have struggled against teams with winning records recently, which might impact their performance tonight.

Recent Form:

  • The Mystics have split their last six games, posting a 3-3 record during this stretch.
  • The Lynx, despite some recent losses, have maintained a strong position in the Western Conference.

Scoring Trends:

  • The Lynx have shown strong offensive capabilities, which might give them an edge against the Mystics’ defense.
  • The Mystics have averaged 79.2 points per game, ranking 10th in the league, while allowing an average of 83.5 points per game (8th in the WNBA).

If you’re looking to read about AI Backed WNBA picks you can check them out here.

Mystics vs Lynx - Rithmm AI pick

My Mystics vs Lynx AI Prediction

My Liberty vs Mystics AI Prediction

The over 156 points bet for tonight's game between the Minnesota Lynx and the Washington Mystics looks promising for several reasons. Both teams have shown a tendency to score high in recent games, with the Lynx averaging over 80 points per game in their last five outings and the Mystics not far behind.

Despite some inconsistencies, both teams have key players capable of putting up significant points. Ariel Atkins for the Mystics and Kayla McBride for the Lynx have been pivotal in driving their teams' offensive output.

Additionally, the Mystics' defense has allowed an average of 83.5 points per game, indicating a potential for a high-scoring game. Historical data also supports this, as the total points in recent matchups between these two teams have often surpassed the 156-point mark.

Given these factors, it is likely that tonight's game will be another high-scoring affair, making the over 156 points bet a solid option. Our model projects Minnesota -7.5 with a total of 163.

Selection: Over 156.5

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Best of luck everybody!

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