There is a pattern in Rithmm's data that does not get much attention, and tonight it is pointing directly at Nicholas Martinez.
When a starting pitcher's earned run under prop is priced near even money, the kind of line where the market sees it as roughly 50/50, the models have built a 17-10 record on those unders this season. That is a 63% win rate with a +24.6% return on investment across 27 bets. A companion pattern tracking all pitcher earned run unders at even-money pricing shows an 18-11 record and a 62.1% win rate. Both are pointing in the same direction tonight.
Martinez starts for Tampa Bay at New York tonight at 11:05 PM ET. His earned runs under is set at 2.5, priced at +104. That is exactly the kind of near-even-money line both patterns are built around, and the setup fits every condition the data has historically rewarded.
The models are not just flagging a pattern match here. Rithmm's prop model projects Martinez allows 2.4 earned runs tonight, landing just below the 2.5 line. That combination of pattern alignment and model projection is what earns this pick a Smart Signal tag in the app, reserved for bets where historical data and current model conviction are moving together.
It is worth understanding why even-money pricing on this type of prop matters. When oddsmakers set an earned runs under at +104, they are signaling they see roughly equal probability in both outcomes. But the models have consistently found that within that bucket, the historical data breaks toward the under at a rate the price does not reflect. That gap between what the line implies and what the models see is the foundation of this pick.
Martinez does not need a dominant performance tonight for this to cash. The models project a controlled start where he limits damage without needing strikeouts or exceptional length. The number to beat is 2.5.
If you want to see how the models are reading the full slate tonight, you can try Rithmm free for 7 days at rithmm.com.
