MLB Pick Today (May 4): Rithmm Models Flag 78.6% Hits Allowed Pattern on Michael Wacha

Published on
May 4, 2026
Sean Ramsey
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The Model Has a Strong Read on Wacha Tonight

Monday's MLB slate has a clear signal. Rithmm's models are flagging Michael Wacha's hits allowed total tonight, and the pattern behind it is one of the strongest on today's board.

The Pattern

The hits allowed pattern behind this pick has gone 22-6 (78.6% win rate) with a +37.8% ROI across 28 tracked bets. Gold tier. Model win probability on tonight's number: 56.9%, DTM of +1.0.

Tonight's Pick

Michael Wacha — Under 5.5 Hits Allowed | -127
KC @ CLE — Tonight, 11:40 PM ET

The models are detecting a consistent pattern in how pitchers in this DTM range and this prop type have performed historically, and Wacha is sitting squarely inside that window tonight. This is not a gut call. It is a 28-game data set pointing in one direction.

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