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Mercury vs Lynx: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models

June 22, 2024

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The WNBA regular season continues with a Western Conference showdown in Minnesota. The Phoenix Mercury travel to face the Minnesota Lynx on Saturday night. Phoenix is coming off a 99-93 home win over New York, where they pulled an upset as five-point underdogs.

Meanwhile, Minnesota secured a 68-55 home victory over Atlanta, covering the spread as 9.5-point favorites. Historically, the Lynx have dominated this matchup, holding an 8-2 advantage in the last ten meetings.

However, the teams have split their two encounters this season. Minnesota won 95-71 at home on May 31, while Phoenix edged out an 81-80 home victory on June 7.

This plays a key role in my Mercury vs Lynx AI prediction.

Preview of my Mercury vs Lynx AI Prediction

The Phoenix Mercury and Minnesota Lynx meet Saturday in WNBA action at the Target Center.

Phoenix Mercury Preview

Phoenix won their second straight game and their fourth in the last five by upsetting New York at home on Tuesday night. This victory improved the Mercury to 8-7 on the season, placing them sixth in the overall standings and 5.5 games behind the Sun for the top spot. In the Western Conference, they stand fourth, four games behind the Lynx.

In Tuesday's game, Phoenix was involved in a see-saw battle. They trailed by four points after the first quarter but led by four at halftime. After being outscored 30-19 in the third quarter, they were down by seven heading into the final period. However, the Mercury rallied in the fourth quarter, outscoring the Liberty 30-17 to secure the win.

Phoenix shot an impressive 55.1% from the floor, including 15 of 30 from three-point range, while holding New York to 42.1% shooting, despite committing 17 turnovers. Britney Griner and Diana Taurasi (nine rebounds, five assists) each scored 19 points, leading six Mercury players in double figures.

Phoenix ranks fourth in the league in scoring offense, averaging 83.3 points per game. They are eighth in rebounding (34.1 per game) and fourth in assists (20.2 per game). Defensively, they rank 10th, allowing an average of 85.8 points per game.

Kahleah Copper leads the team with 23.5 points and 4.4 rebounds per game. Britney Griner (21.4 points, seven rebounds), Diana Taurasi (16.9 points, five boards), and Natasha Cloud (10.5 points, 4.6 rebounds, 7.3 assists) provide solid secondary scoring options. Other key players include Sophie Cunningham, Rebecca Allen, Natasha Mack, Sug Sutton, Morgan Bertsch, Mikiah Herbert-Harrigan, and Liz Dixon. These are some of the key players in my Mercury vs Lynx AI prediction.

Minnesota Lynx Preview

The Minnesota Lynx are coming off a 68-55 home win against the Atlanta Dream in their latest game. Offensively, the team struggled, shooting 27-of-76 (35.5%) from the field and 7-of-22 (31.8%) from beyond the arc, while only attempting eight free throws.

Forward Napheesa Collier had a solid performance with 16 points, eight rebounds, four assists, one block, and one steal in 30 minutes. Defensively, the Lynx excelled, holding the Dream to 19-of-66 (28.8%) shooting overall and 4-of-23 (17.4%) from three-point range, though they allowed 20 free throw attempts. To continue their winning streak, they need to reduce fouling.

The Minnesota Lynx have been strong offensively this season, ranking third in the league with an average of 85.3 points per game. They lead in shooting percentage (45.5%) and three-point percentage (40.0%). Defensively, they are second in points allowed (74.7) and sixth in rebounds per game (34.5). If they continue to improve offensively, they have the potential to climb higher in the standings and certainly factor into my Lynx vs Mercury AI Prediction.

How I Use Rithmm Models for Mercury vs Lynx AI Prediction

Recent Performance:

  • The Minnesota Lynx are currently one of the hottest teams in the league, having won six of their last ten games after starting the season 0-5. They have also covered the spread in eight of their last eleven games.
  • The Phoenix Mercury have struggled, both with and without their star players, Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner. Despite their return, Phoenix has continued to struggle, losing multiple games straight-up and against the spread.

Key Statistics:

  • The Mercury are facing significant challenges, particularly when Taurasi and Griner are out. Their return has provided some stability, but the team's overall performance remains inconsistent.
  • The Lynx, led by Napheesa Collier, have found a strong rhythm. Collier has been averaging 25.3 points and 8.6 rebounds over the last ten games, becoming a crucial factor in their resurgence.

Betting Trends:

  • The Lynx have been a strong bet on the road, going 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. They have also hit the under in nine of their fifteen games this season, suggesting a tendency towards lower-scoring games.
  • The Mercury have hit the under in seven of their last fourteen games, with one push, indicating a similar trend towards lower-scoring contests.

Matchup History:

  • In their most recent encounter on July 7, 2023, the Lynx defeated the Mercury 75-64. This continued a trend of Minnesota performing well against Phoenix this season.

Line Movements:

  • The betting line opened with Phoenix as a slight favorite, but sharp bettors quickly moved it, suggesting less confidence in the Mercury. The total points line has also shifted downwards, indicating expectations of a lower-scoring game.

My Mercury vs Lynx AI Prediction

Phoenix enters this contest on a strong note, having won two straight games and four of their last five. However, the Mercury face a tough challenge and potential letdown after their recent victory over New York. This season, they have split two meetings with Minnesota, with each team winning at home. The Mercury were defeated by 24 points in their last visit to Minnesota.

Phoenix has struggled on the road with a 2-5 record, including that significant loss to the Lynx last month. Meanwhile, Minnesota boasts an impressive 8-1 home record, with victories over the Storm (twice) and the Liberty. Given these factors, the Lynx have the upper hand and are likely to secure another victory.

My Lynx vs Mercury AI Prediction suggests Mercury will win the game and there is value also on them covering the spread

If you’re looking for more AI Backed WNBA picks you can check them out here.

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