Memorial Tournament 2024: Round 3 Best Bets & AI Caddie Picks
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As promised, we got the carnage that we were looking for during Round 2 of the Memorial Tournament, held at iconic Muirfield Village. Scottie Scheffler holds the 36-hole lead (surprise, surprise), up by three shots over defending champion Viktor Hovland and Adam Hadwin, but really, anyone within seven shots is still most likely in contention at this incredibly difficult course.
Following every round, we’ll be going through my favorite AI golf picks for the following round, as well as the Rithmm-backed AI Caddie hole score picks I’m rolling with. Let’s get into Round 3!
All Odds are found on DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted
Memorial Tournament Round 3 AI Caddie Pick
Scottie Scheffler to Birdie or Better Hole 3 (+170)
I keep attacking Hole 3 here, but today, we're going to roll with world number one Scheffler to get a birdie. In my Round 2 article, I opined that this hole should play easier in Round 2 by a sizable amount, and that it did, yielding 24 birdies and playing as the third-easiest hole on the course.
A lot of this was due to the pin location. Players could either play to the safer fat left side of the green and use the natural contours to carry it close to the hole, like Collin Morikawa did, or they could do what Rory McIlroy did, and hit the ball just beyond the hole with some spin and have it come back underneath the hole for a relatively straight uphill look.
For Round 3, the pin location is back on the right side of the green, but it's a bit more accessible than the opening round pin was. Players will once again use the contours of the green to carry the ball left to right, but this pin sits about eight feet closer to the water than it did on Thursday.
For Scheffler, who has birdied this hole in both rounds, I think this is a very feasible ask. On Thursday's round, he used the slope to get this ball underneath the hole, about 14 feet away, and then holed he birdie putt. He can realistically follow the exact same line that he took and he'd end up around five to seven feet away from the Round 3 location.
Our Rithmm AI Caddie model gives Scheffler a 35% chance to birdie this hole for a third straight day, and even at +170 odds, you can bet I'm taking a swing on this one.
Memorial Tournament Round 3 Best Bet
Matchup Play: Keegan Bradley > Ludvig Aberg (+110)
So far, our Bradley top 20 play from the Course Preview looks very nice, with him sitting in T4 through 36 holes and closing Round 2 with an 180-yard dart to a foot for a birdie. It only makes sense to believe that he'll continue this good play, so dig into why I like him in this matchup!
Realistically, despite Aberg being -4, only one shot behind Bradley at this point, I think it's a very overrated -4. First off, yesterday was one of Aberg's best putting performances of the entire year. He ranked second in the in Strokes Gained: Putting in Round 1, paired with only gained 0.56 strokes on approach, which is typically very tough to keep doing if you're not an all-star putter, which he really isn't.
Today, Aberg wasn't bad, but he wasn't able to make the putts he made on Thursday, and he lost nearly a full stroke off the tee. It was announced that Aberg is dealing with a meniscus tear during the round, something he has had for a few weeks now. There's no telling how an injury like that could affect him, but it definitely could play a role.
Moving to Bradley, he also had a terrific putting day on Thursday, gaining 3.7 strokes with the flat stick. Unlike Aberg, though, he managed to have just as solid of a putting day on Friday, racking up 2.4 strokes gained with the putter. He managed to also gain 2.2 strokes ballstriking as well as 1.1 strokes off the tee. All of this resulted in a very productive -3 day for the former PGA Champion.
Looking at past scoring, both Bradley and Aberg average just over a 69 in Round 3 this season, so there's no discernible advantage there. I'm rolling with Bradley in this case, though. Between Aberg's reliance on putting worrying me and his possible knee issue, I think Bradley is the favorite in this matchup.
Closing Remarks on Memorial Tournament Round 3 Best Bets
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