Hunter Goodman Under 1.5 Total Bases: MLB AI Pick for September 23, 2026

The Rithmm models are flagging Hunter Goodman's total bases prop tonight, and the numbers behind it are worth understanding. Goodman, the Colorado Rockies catcher, faces the Arizona Diamondbacks at 7:40 PM with the models projecting 1.2 total bases against a line set at 1.5. The pick is Under 1.5 Total Bases at -128, tagged as an Elite Edge play with the recommended green star in the app.

What anchors this pick is the pattern behind it. MLB catchers hitting under at a 57 to 60 percent model probability have gone 35-17 across 52 bets this season, a 67.3 percent win rate with a +19.0% ROI. That is one of the strongest position-specific patterns on the board tonight, and Goodman fits it precisely given where the models price his probability.

The Rithmm models show a 59 percent win probability on the under with +6.3% Edge over the book-implied price. Edge is the gap between what the models calculate as the true win probability and what the sportsbook's odds imply. When that gap is positive, the bet carries mathematical value beyond what the line reflects. Goodman has gone under 1.5 total bases in 6 of his last 10 games, and tonight's model projection of 1.2 total bases keeps him well inside that threshold. The model confidence score sits at 6 out of 10.

The models factor in park conditions, opposing pitching tendencies, and Goodman's recent output trajectory when arriving at the 1.2 projection. With the line at 1.5, the gap between what the models expect and what the book requires gives this prop a clean mathematical edge heading into first pitch.

Rithmm is an AI sports betting research platform that gives everyday bettors transparent model projections, win probability, and Edge on every prop across the full slate. The platform shows both recommended and cautioned plays with clear reasoning, so you see the entire board rather than just a filtered list of top picks. Tonight's Goodman total bases prop is available alongside the full AI MLB picks board inside the app. Rithmm offers line shopping across DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, Hard Rock, Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, and more. Scout, the AI sports betting analyst available on Pro and Premium plans, can break down any prop on tonight's slate in plain English. A 7-day free trial is available with a credit card, or explore the full AI sports picks coverage across all eight sports Rithmm tracks.