Georgia Amoore is the kind of guard who will always draw three-point action on a Mystics slate. She is listed as a starter, she spaces the floor, and a 1.5 made threes line is the number most bettors default to on the over. Tonight the AI sports picks stack is leaning the quieter side.
The Las Vegas Aces visit the Washington Mystics on Wednesday, July 22, 2026, with tip set for 7:30 p.m. ET. Amoore is in the Mystics backcourt against one of the toughest perimeter defenses in the league. Sportsbooks have her three-pointers line at 1.5, with the under priced around -158 in the market.
Rithmm’s prop models project Amoore at 0.55 made threes, nearly a full make below the posted number. Win probability on the under sits at 69%, with a 7.4% edge after the market price is accounted for. That combination matters. The projection is not hugging the line. It is sitting well under it, which is why the models are comfortable paying juice on the under rather than chasing the over at plus money.
Recent form backs the same read. Amoore has gone under 1.5 made threes in 7 of her last 10 games, and her season role still runs more through playmaking than volume shooting. She is averaging 6.2 points, 3.7 assists, and 1.2 rebounds on the year as a Mystics guard. Against an Aces team that polices the arc and forces tougher catch-and-shoot looks, the models are not asking her to suddenly become a three-make machine in one night.
The under also shows up as a high-conviction prop on tonight’s board. It carries the markers the models use when a three-point under is both projected soft and priced as a real lean, not a coin flip. You still have to respect the juice at -158. What you are buying is a projection at 0.55 with a 69% chance the under cashes, not a narrative that Amoore forgot how to shoot.
None of that turns this into a lock. One hot quarter, two open kick-outs, and the under is done before halftime. What the models are saying is simpler. At 0.55 projected threes, with a 69% win probability and a 7.4% edge against a -158 price, this is a disciplined WNBA prop lean on a starter whose recent three-point hit rate has stayed under the number.
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Pick: Georgia Amoore Under 1.5 3-Pointers (-158)
